Xi’s Pyongyang visit gives Kim chance to project confidence and defiance
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to North Korea gives Kim Jong Un a rare diplomatic stage as Pyongyang strengthens ties with Russia, expands its nuclear arsenal and shows little interest in talks with Washington.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is welcoming Chinese President Xi Jinping to Pyongyang on Monday from a position of renewed confidence, backed by closer ties with Russia, a growing nuclear arsenal and little sign of interest in re-engaging with Washington.
For Xi, the two-day visit to China’s neighbour — his first trip to North Korea in seven years — is part of Beijing’s effort to draw Pyongyang closer after Kim deepened military and economic cooperation with Moscow.
The visit follows a period of warming China-North Korea exchanges. Xi hosted Kim at a major military parade in Beijing last year, and the two countries have since resumed some passenger rail and air services.
This week’s summit is expected to contrast sharply with Xi’s previous visit to the isolated state in 2019, which came only months after Kim’s talks with US President Donald Trump collapsed over North Korea’s denuclearisation and sanctions relief.
Kim’s ‘comeback’ years
Since then, Kim has moved closer to Russia, including by sending troops to support Moscow in the Ukraine war. He has also continued developing North Korea’s nuclear capabilities in defiance of UN sanctions and tightened control of the country’s borders to prevent defections.
Ahead of Xi’s arrival, North Korea sought to underline its military strength by announcing plans for a 10,000-ton naval destroyer and reaffirming its status as a nuclear-armed state.
Andrew Gilholm, an analyst at Control Risks, said Xi’s visit was “a big deal” for Kim after what he described as a strong period of recovery for the North Korean leader.
In 2019, Kim gave Xi a lavish reception in Pyongyang, including mass displays featuring Xi’s image and the Chinese flag. However, ties between the two sides have not always been smooth, particularly over North Korea’s nuclear programme.
Beijing has publicly opposed North Korea’s nuclear tests and has repeatedly called for the Korean Peninsula to be denuclearised, while Pyongyang has resisted any pressure to give up its weapons.
Russia ties give Pyongyang more room
North Korea has long been cautious about becoming too dependent on China, its largest neighbour and traditional ally, with which it shares a roughly 1,400-kilometre border. Its growing relationship with Russia now gives Pyongyang an additional source of support and leverage.
John Delury, a senior fellow at the Asia Society, said North Korea appeared to be benefiting economically from what it was providing militarily to Russia.
That, he said, may make Pyongyang more confident about expanding trade and investment with China.
Tourism and economy likely high on agenda
Any concrete outcome from the summit is expected to focus mainly on economic cooperation, according to diplomats and analysts.
North Korea is beginning a new five-year development plan that includes turning tourism into a stronger industry and expanding housing construction.
The country closed its borders to foreign tourists in early 2020 under some of the world’s strictest Covid-19 controls, cutting off a modest but important source of foreign currency. Before the pandemic, Chinese visitors formed the backbone of North Korea’s tourism sector, accounting for the overwhelming majority of foreign tourists. Reuters reported that the first known post-pandemic leisure tourists allowed back were a group from Russia’s Far East in February 2024.
Singapore’s foreign minister, after visiting Pyongyang last month, said North Korea had managed to make economic progress and appeared to have little interest in engagement with the United States or South Korea.
Nuclear red line remains
North Korea has rejected reunification with South Korea, a goal once formally shared by both sides since the Korean War divided the peninsula. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung remains interested in dialogue and has asked Xi to assist efforts to improve inter-Korean relations.
Moon Chung-in, a professor at Yonsei University in Seoul and a former national security adviser, said Seoul hoped Xi could play a mediating role in improving relations between the two Koreas.
However, Kim has made clear that North Korea’s nuclear programme remains a red line. In addition to Sunday’s reaffirmation of its nuclear status, he recently called for an “exponential” expansion of the country’s atomic arsenal.
Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said Kim is likely to continue expanding fissile-material production, increasing and deploying nuclear weapons, and stressing the legitimacy of North Korea’s nuclear deterrent.
Christopher Green, a Korea specialist at Leiden University in the Netherlands, said Kim had become emboldened.
He said Pyongyang appeared confident that Beijing would not try to stop North Korea’s nuclear expansion as long as Kim avoided outright regional instability.
Source: Reuters
