NESDC highlights 5 global megatrends shaping Thailand's future

Dr Danucha Pichayanan, Secretary-General of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), presented a speech on 22 January 2026 at the Leadership Program on Trade and Development Strategy (LTD), organised by the International Trade and Development Institute (ITD). He discussed 5 global megatrends that will shape the future of Thailand's economy in the new global order.

These trends include:

Polarised economies and escalating trade wars

This trend has become part of the broader competition for economic dominance, with tariffs and trade barriers replacing the previous model of globalisation. The impact on Thailand’s exports, especially in key industries like hard disk drives, automobile tyres, and printed circuit boards, may be significant due to trade wars led by the United States. Thailand must tackle risks associated with transshipment—the mislabeling of products to avoid tariffs—and utilise trade diversion to seek new markets.

Geopolitical conflicts

Geopolitical tensions have escalated in recent years, with US national security strategies signalling increased geopolitical competition. Even though tensions over Greenland appear to have eased, Trump’s administration may continue pushing into other regions like Latin America or Canada, which could destabilise global security. For Thailand, as a small, open economy, neutrality remains essential. Thailand can leverage this neutrality to attract global investments in strategic industries.

Rapid technological disruption

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) poses both challenges and opportunities. Many countries face the issue of AI affecting employment in traditional sectors. Thailand must focus on upskilling and reskilling its workforce to adapt to technological shifts, ensuring that people can keep up with new demands in AI and other tech fields.

Demographic changes and aging society

An increasing aging population is a global phenomenon, affecting not only Thailand but countries like Vietnam as well. To prepare for an aging society, Thailand needs to focus on quality, universal welfare systems, while addressing labour shortages by planning for the use of foreign workers in sectors with labour gaps. Moreover, the country must focus on matching labour skills to the economy’s future needs.

Climate change

Extreme climate changes will result in severe weather patterns and natural disasters that will harm people’s lives and livelihoods. Agriculture, especially, will face reduced productivity. Thailand needs to adjust and plan for these changes by supporting climate-resilient agriculture and ensuring that the economy can adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Fiscal and Economic Policy Recommendations

Dr Danucha also discussed macroeconomic policy strategies for 2026, particularly the need to address household and business debt, especially in the SME sector. He suggested restructuring debt and offering new credit lines to ease liquidity pressure and reduce non-performing loans (NPLs). One of the key measures is encouraging businesses to participate in the “Debt Resolution Program” to enable them to access credit and continue operations.

In addition, Thailand must accelerate private sector investment, particularly in industries that have already been approved for investment promotion in 2024-2026. He also highlighted the importance of ensuring financial readiness and budget disbursement while maintaining fiscal discipline to support the economy amid increasing global uncertainty.

As global challenges intensify, Thailand must prepare its economy to withstand future crises, stay competitive, and drive long-term growth. This preparation should include investing in key industries, supporting labour force development, and focusing on climate resilience.