Thai condo market in 2026: a year of cautious selection as new projects decline

Surachet Kongcheep, Head of Research and Consulting at Cushman & Wakefield Thailand, reported that only 16,408 condo units were launched in 2025, a significant decline, particularly in Q4, where new launches dropped by 56% compared to the previous quarter. This dip in new supply reflects multiple pressures, including the Thai-Cambodian border conflict, a lack of new government stimulus measures, and an overall economic slowdown. Additionally, factors like the PM2.5 pollution and political uncertainties around the general election delayed decision-making for both buyers and investors.

Rising Prices but Limited Mass Market Appeal

Despite a decrease in new condo projects, the price structure of these developments has risen significantly. In 2025, the proportion of condos priced above 100,000 baht per square metre increased, with some projects nearing 200,000 baht per square metre. Developers are shifting focus towards the high-end market, where there is still demand and greater profit potential, although this shift excludes mass-market buyers.

In contrast, many developers are choosing to "clear old stock" by aggressively selling off completed projects, sometimes at reduced prices or with lower margins, to navigate the sluggish market. This approach is helping businesses survive but is not enough to generate significant profit, ensuring businesses remain afloat during these challenging times.

A Year of Screening, Not Expansion

The outlook for 2026 remains cautious, with Surachet predicting that developers will continue to delay new launches. Only around 15,000 condo units are expected to be released this year, with a primary focus on clearing existing inventory. The local economy remains fragile, and while the tourism sector is showing signs of recovery—especially with the return of Chinese tourists—domestic purchasing power remains weak. The condo market continues to rely heavily on foreign buyers, particularly from China, with 3,300-3,900 units being transferred per quarter since 2023.

Foreign Buyers Not the Sole Solution

Although demand from Chinese buyers remains steady, particularly through direct sales and bulk transactions via agents, the Thai condo market cannot rely on this group alone in the long term. Developers are becoming increasingly aware of the risks of relying too heavily on any single group, and 2026 will see them focus more on data-driven decisions rather than relying on past assumptions. Projects will be smaller, more niche, and will focus on specific target groups. Additionally, the high-cost amenities common in previous developments may be scaled back to control long-term operational costs.

Household Debt and Politics: Key Factors to Watch

Another key factor for the Thai market in 2026 is household debt, which directly impacts access to credit and the ability to purchase properties. The political situation following the election could further delay economic policies and government formation, adding to the uncertainty. With these factors in mind, 2026 is expected to see little growth or only modest improvement in the housing market.

In this new condo market era, survival depends on being strategic, controlling costs, and knowing when to act. 2026 will not be a year of bold expansion, but rather one of filtering out players and focusing on sustainable growth.