Foreign condo transfers slump to THB44bn as India surges
REIC data show foreign condo transfers in Jan-Sep 2025 fell 14.2% to THB44.1bn, with Chinese demand easing but Indian buyers spending more per unit.
Thailand’s property market is facing another major test in 2026, after new figures from the Real Estate Information Centre (REIC) of the Government Housing Bank pointed to a clear slowdown in foreign demand in 2025—long viewed as a key engine of the condominium market.
A global economic slowdown has hit foreign condo demand hard, with the first nine months of 2025 showing sharp declines in both volume and value as Chinese buyers—still the largest group—pulled back amid liquidity strains. In contrast, Indian buyers have emerged as a fast-rising force, typically purchasing larger, higher-priced units for real residential use.
The shift is fuelling what developers describe as a “changing of the guard” in 2026, as the market looks beyond China towards higher-quality demand from India, as well as Europe and the United States, while weak domestic purchasing power remains a key risk.
Q3 2025: Units up, value down
In the third quarter of 2025, nationwide foreign condo transfers rose slightly in volume to 3,844 units, up 2.3% year on year. However, total transfer value fell to THB15.4 billion, down 17.2%.
The pattern—more units but less value—suggests remaining foreign buyers are shifting towards more affordable condominiums, or buying for genuine occupancy rather than speculative investment in ultra-luxury projects.
Jan-Sep 2025: Value drops to THB44.1 billion
For January to September 2025, total foreign condo transfers stood at 11,011 units, down 0.05%, while total value slipped to THB44.1 billion, plunging 14.2%.
REIC data point to global headwinds spilling into Thailand, with China still ranked number one but noticeably weaker due to domestic economic pressures, a property-sector slump and tighter liquidity—prompting many Chinese investors to delay transfers indefinitely.
India emerges as a high-value buyer
Against the lull in Chinese demand, Indian buyers have stood out as the strongest group in “quality” terms. REIC data show Indians recorded the highest transfer value per unit, averaging THB6.9 million per unit, compared with THB3.8 million for Chinese buyers.
Indian buyers also purchased significantly larger units, with an average size of 73.6 square metres—nearly double the overall market average of 41.1 sq m. This contrasts with Chinese buyers, who typically buy smaller units averaging 36 sq m, often for investment or as a second home.
Developers are now under pressure to adjust product offerings to better match this new demand profile.
Foreign share still significant
Despite the shrinking “cake”, foreign buyers continue to play an outsized role. In Q3 2025, foreign transfers accounted for 14.3% of total units and 24.8% of total value—both higher than the same period a year earlier.
That means foreign capital remains a vital lifeline for Thai developers, particularly as high household debt continues to weigh on domestic demand.
