Anutin's government must act now, global energy expert says

Thailand must act now to tackle the energy crisis before it is too late, according to Thai energy expert Panurach Dumrongthai.

While US President Donald Trump has claimed the war in the Middle East could end within two to three weeks, ongoing conflicts have already sent shockwaves across Thailand, as diesel prices in have risen by almost 60%.

Panurach emphasised that the worst-case scenario is not rising prices, but declining oil reserves due to import shortages.

“In Thailand, daily oil consumption reaches roughly one million barrels of crude oil. However, in April, the government has only confirmed a supply of 24 million barrels, meaning Thailand’s oil reserves will begin to decline from this month,” he said.

He added that the situation will worsen, as the government has secured only 9 million barrels for May. He estimated a combined shortfall of 27 million barrels over April and May.

As fuel prices continue to rise, Thai officials have said the situation has moved into “level 2” of the energy crisis, where supply remains available but at significantly higher cost.

To respond to the crisis, the expert said the government must implement emergency measures while also preparing long-term energy strategies, as tensions in the Middle East are likely to persist.

However, he noted that diesel prices in Thailand may not exceed 60 baht per litre if the fuel excise tax is reduced.

“Vietnam has already cut its oil tax to ease pressure from rising prices. Thailand should also reduce its fuel excise tax. If that is not practical, an emergency fund to support vulnerable groups, such as farmers, could help alleviate financial pressures,” he said.

Malaysia has also maintained sufficient supplies to keep prices at RM1.99, equivalent to roughly 15 baht, per litre for two months since the start of the war, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said.

According to PTT, diesel prices have reached 47.74 baht per litre, an increase of 3.50 baht as of 3 April.

When asked about the potential closure of the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, another key shipping route in the Middle East, Panurach said it could be disastrous for Thailand’s energy security and global markets.

Drawing on decades of experience in the energy sector, he explained that Saudi Arabia’s major oil processing facility, the Ras Tanura refinery, exports up to 5 million barrels per day, underscoring the scale of supply that could be disrupted.

He added that it would be difficult for Thailand to find alternative sources to meet short-term demand if the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, a crucial passage for oil tankers from the Red Sea, were to be shut down.