Worst-case warming could push Sukhothai to 49C and Bangkok near 45C

Thailand could face sharply higher temperatures in the future, with Sukhothai potentially reaching 49C under a worst-case climate scenario, according to a warning by a leading climate and disaster expert.

Assoc Prof Dr Seree Supratid, director of the Climate Change and Disaster Centre at Rangsit University, said Thailand was likely to face more severe heat, particularly in the lower North, the Central region and the Northeast, if global warming reaches 2-3C.

In a Facebook post, Seree asked which Thai provinces could face extreme heat in the future, pointing to projected changes in Thailand’s maximum temperatures under different warming scenarios.

He said many countries were already experiencing record-breaking heatwaves, but the current situation could be only the beginning of more extreme weather in the years ahead.

According to Seree, Rangsit University’s Climate and Disaster Centre, drawing on climate assessment work linked to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, has projected changes in Thailand’s future climate.

He said warning signs were already visible globally, with Europe recently facing temperatures of 40-45C and India recording 46.9C. These conditions suggested the world was moving towards a 2C scenario, which he described as an “adapt to survive” scenario.

That scenario, he said, would require societies to adapt to more severe weather conditions, in line with the upper limit of the Paris Agreement target range of 1.5-2.0C. He also warned that this shift would be irreversible.

Lower North, Central region and Northeast at risk

Seree said Thailand’s future maximum temperatures were shown in the attached projection map.
 

Under the first scenario, based on 2C of warming, areas shown in orange, red and dark red would become hot to extremely hot zones. These would include provinces in the lower North, the Central region and the Northeast.

Sukhothai would be among the provinces facing the most intense heat.

Under the 2C scenario:

Sukhothai could see daily maximum temperatures of 43.54-46C. Its average maximum temperature could reach 44.75C.

Bangkok could see daily maximum temperatures of 38.73-41.79C. Bangkok’s average maximum temperature could reach 40.9C.

Worst-case scenario could push Sukhothai to 49C

Seree said the second scenario, based on 3C of warming, represented the worst case in which no additional adaptation measures were taken beyond present conditions.

In this scenario, the orange, red and dark red areas would expand and become more intense, indicating a broader spread of extreme heat.

Under the 3C scenario:

Sukhothai could see daily maximum temperatures of 44.18-49.01C. Its average maximum temperature could reach 46.76C.

Bangkok could see daily maximum temperatures of 40-44.9C. Bangkok’s average maximum temperature could reach 43.03C.

Seree warned that rising temperatures would not be the only concern. Weather patterns would also become more volatile and more severe.

He asked how people would live under such conditions and whether society would allow future generations to face that fate.

He said the government must lead the transition towards a better situation and must not ignore the data.

Source: FB Assoc Prof Dr Seree Supratid