Top brass changes hands amid Thai-Cambodian border flare-up

Tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border are escalating rapidly, as evidenced by the military’s decision to tighten control over border crossings, now limited strictly to humanitarian aid in seven provinces: Sa Kaeo, Buri Ram, Surin, Si Sa Ket, Ubon Ratchathani, Chanthaburi, and Trat.

Meanwhile, the stability of the Thai government appears increasingly fragile. Internal political complications have surfaced following an imminent Cabinet reshuffle, sparked by Pheu Thai’s move to reclaim control over the Interior Ministry—a final straw for Bhumjaithai, which has since withdrawn from the coalition and joined the opposition.

The situation is further exacerbated by the leaked audio clip of Hun Sen’s private conversation, which continues to batter Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra like a political storm. Her family’s close ties with the Hun family have only deepened public suspicion about her ability to safeguard Thailand’s national interests.

This has raised a critical question: Without the audio clip, would the military’s planned operations—ranging from crackdowns on online crime and call centre scams to border closures—have been stalled or shelved indefinitely? The lack of trust has fuelled growing calls for the prime minister to resign or dissolve the House.

Most recently, a growing number of political groups, civil society organisations, and local communities across multiple provinces have begun mobilising.

Former senator Somchai Sawaengkarn and several civic networks—including the Anti-Corruption Citizens’ Organisation in Khon Kaen, a local group in Loei, and the Four-Region People’s Council in both Nakhon Ratchasima and Songkhla—have filed complaints demanding legal proceedings against the Premier.

Meanwhile, Srisuwan Janya, head of the organisation "Love the Nation, Love the country", has submitted a petition to the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) calling for an investigation into whether Paetongtarn violated the Constitution and committed serious ethical misconduct.

Ruangkrai Leekitwattana, a member of the opposition Palang Pracharath Party, lodged a separate complaint with the Election Commission, alleging that Paetongtarn lacked integrity and honesty—charges that could warrant her removal from office under the Constitution.

On 28 June, a political alliance known as the People’s Power for Sovereignty Protection—led by Jatuporn Prompan, Panthep Puapongpan, Nitithorn Lamlua, Phichit Chaimongkol, and Kaewsan Atibodhi—held a mass rally at the Victory Monument in Bangkok, demanding the government's ouster.

Further intensifying the pressure, the Constitutional Court is scheduled on 1 July to decide whether to accept a petition filed by 36 senators seeking a ruling on the leaked audio clip involving the Prime Minister. The petition accuses her of constitutional violations, dishonesty, and grave ethical breaches, and urges the court to suspend her from official duties pending a verdict.

Paetongtarn appears to be caught in a political firestorm following the circulation of an audio clip, which has sparked speculation over the Thai government's knowledge of the assassination of Cambodian opposition politician Lim Kimya in Bangkok earlier this year.

Political figures and analysts are urging the government to shift its focus toward a transparent investigation into the killing, stressing the urgent need for accountability and a firm stance on international human rights.

“The government must prioritise investigating the murder of the Cambodian opposition figure on Thai soil. This is a matter of urgency and a crucial opportunity for Thailand to affirm its commitment to universal principles and human rights, particularly as tensions with Cambodia spill onto the international stage,” one source stated.

Parit Wacharasindhu, spokesperson for the People’s Party, said Paetongtarn must address public concerns directly:

“If the Prime Minister is serious about addressing the issue, she should lead the investigation effort. Doing so would dispel allegations of her potential knowledge or involvement in the matter, which occurred during her premiership. Failing to act will only invite deeper suspicion.”

Meanwhile, the opposition Bhumjaithai Party is preparing to submit a no-confidence motion under Article 151 of the Constitution against the Prime Minister and her Cabinet once Parliament resumes on 3 July.

Observers now assess the government as surviving on borrowed time. Though it is attempting to buy space by seeking public understanding and pushing for the passage of the 2026 budget bill, its credibility continues to erode rapidly.

“The Prime Minister is no longer fit for office. Realistically, she has maybe two to three months at best. The political tide is turning too quickly,” said Witthaya Kaewparadai, deputy leader of the United Thai Nation Party.

“Some speculate that she may resign after the budget bill is passed, but I believe that won’t be necessary. The real question is whether she will even remain in office long enough to see it through.”

Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen has intensified political pressure on Paetongtarn with a bold prediction that Thailand will have a new prime minister within the next three months. 

This anticipated “danger period” has sparked widespread concern about the Thai government’s stability and the resurgence of opportunistic threats as seen on the evening of 25 June, when a series of security incidents unfolded across southern provinces.

A suspect was apprehended in Phuket after abandoning a motorcycle containing a suspicious device near the airport. Explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) teams successfully neutralised the object, while additional suspicious items were discovered at Patong Beach and two other locations in Krabi.

Army Commander-in-Chief Gen Pana Klaewplodthuk, who also serves as deputy director of the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC), convened a top-level meeting to reinforce intelligence gathering and civilian engagement in the southern border provinces. The objective is to prevent militant groups from exploiting the government’s vulnerability to incite unrest.

Concerns were also raised about the Thai-Cambodian border. The army chief directed ISOC to assist the 1st and 2nd Army Regions in monitoring illegal migrant activity across the country. This comes amid speculation that internal disorder could precede external confrontation — a pattern witnessed during past crises, such as the Thai-Cambodian border clashes in 2011 and the torching of the Thai embassy in Phnom Penh in 2003.

As the political timeline accelerates, further turbulence may lie ahead in the defence establishment. The command of the 2nd Army Region — a pivotal post in Thailand’s northeastern military theatre — is set to change hands in September when Lt Gen Boonsin Padklang retires. The spotlight now falls on Maj Gen Weerayut Raksilp, the current 2nd Army Region's deputy commander, overseeing operations and intelligence. A close ally of the current army chief and outgoing 2nd Army Region commander, Weerayut, is expected to be appointed during this highly sensitive period.

Simultaneously, intense speculation surrounds the defence ministerial post in the anticipated Cabinet reshuffle. Political figures have reportedly proposed Gen Sunai Praphuchanai, former commander of the Special Warfare Command and an ally of Justice Minister Tawee Sodsong, for the role. Sunai was previously seen alongside Thaksin Shinawatra at a public address on anti-drug policy.

His candidacy, however, risks sidelining Deputy Defence Minister Gen Natthaphon Nakphanich, who currently oversees the ad hoc border security centre on the Thai-Cambodian frontier. This reshuffle uncertainty could also disrupt earlier plans to move Phumtham Wechayachai to the Interior Ministry — a shift now in question as compromise scenarios gain traction within the ruling Pheu Thai Party.

With the administration under siege from both internal divisions and external provocation, and public approval ratings in freefall, the question looms: will Paetongtarn seize the initiative and dissolve the House to form a caretaker government? Or will she wait for an inevitable political crisis to dictate her exit?