Will Thaksin return to Thailand to hear the verdict in the 14th floor case?
Thaksin may settle in Dubai as the September 9 ruling looms and jail risk grows; his trusted chef, famed for dishes he loves, joined him on the flight. But reports suggest that at 9 pm tonight ( September 7), Thaksin will fly from Dubai to Singapore.
Passenger checks on the luxury private jet carrying former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to Dubai on Friday (September 5) revealed an unusual companion: his personal chef, whose cooking he is said to be especially fond of. The presence of his trusted cook has fuelled speculation that this may be a “one-way flight,” suggesting Thaksin plans to stay abroad for an extended period.
Thaksin’s immediate plan is to await the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions ruling on September 9 in the so-called 14th floor case.
The case stems from his admission to the Police General Hospital on the night he was sent to prison after returning to Thailand in 2024. Since then, he has not returned to prison, having served his term under medical supervision before being released.
This has led to growing debate over whether he has, in fact, already served his sentence.
If the court finds that his punishment was already completed and shifts responsibility onto state officials, Thaksin may be spared further jail time. In that scenario, he is expected to return to Thailand and weigh his political future.
Yet few believe he will retire quietly. Known for his refusal to accept defeat, many observers predict he will attempt a political comeback, with particular focus on challenging the Bhumjaithai Party.
However, should the court rule against him, Thaksin is likely to remain overseas indefinitely. Any return could trigger new legal consequences.
It should not be forgotten that he has already petitioned for, and received, a royal pardon reducing his previous sentence.
Though some speculate he might briefly return to serve a token sentence before seeking privileges such as the “outside prison stay” rule, this is seen as highly unlikely under the current government, now dominated by Bhumjaithai.
Judicial sources suggest the Supreme Court is inclined to insist that Thaksin must still serve his sentence. The argument is that the original imprisonment order has never been properly carried out, since he was never physically confined.
The panel is expected to stress that this does not encroach on the executive’s authority over sentence administration, exercised by the Department of Corrections, but rather reflects the fact that the court’s order remains unexecuted and must therefore be enforced.
Ruling may be delivered in absentia
If Thaksin does not appear in court on September 9, the ruling may still be delivered in absentia under Section 40, paragraph 2 of the Organic Act on Criminal Procedure for Holders of Political Positions. The provision states:
“In cases where the court schedules a hearing of a judgment or order, and the defendant, having been properly informed, does not attend, the court may deliver the judgment or order in the defendant’s absence, and it shall be deemed that the defendant has heard such judgment or order.”
Legal experts believe Thaksin’s team is unlikely to request a postponement. Since he is already abroad, his camp would prefer to hear the outcome swiftly. A negative ruling would not immediately affect him, while a favourable decision could pave the way for his return to Thailand.
Reports suggest that at 9pm tonight, Thaksin will fly from Dubai to Singapore.
