Stop the stopgap measures; the Peter principle dictates it

In the morning, the news headlines quoted a cabinet member who declared triumphantly, the worst was over, and Bangkok was spared.  In the afternoon, a key industrial estate in the suburb of Bangkok suffered flash flood.  Overnight flash flood submerged the whole residential development. Now we were told the worst might be towards the end of the month and even beyond.

 

The next day, we will hear more stories about more makeshift sand bag walls, here, there and everywhere. And the same day we will hear more stories about these walls, somewhere, succumb to the floods. 

 

Many of us want to scream to all the powers that be that have messed up so royally with their flood management endeavors:  STOP THE FOLLIES. None of the known stopgap measures will ever work with the floods of this magnitude at this time.  If anything, they create more problems rather than solving them.

 

Dr. Laurence J Peter and Raymond Hull in their humorous book The Peter Principle, published in 1969, concluded from their observation that anything that (used to) works, will be used in progressively more challenging applications until it fails.

 

Even more poignant is their statement that “in a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence”, i.e. they tend to be promoted until they reach a position at which they cannot work competently.

 

The public does not doubt the sincere eagerness of the government personnel in charge of the flood management; we only doubt their competence.

 

Everyday that we have to deal with emotional yo-yo is taking its toll. If Bangkok is going to be flooded, let it be flooded, but in a calculated and manageable manner.  Any financial planners are not afraid of inflation, they are afraid of unanticipated, unforeseen inflation.  Investors can deal with risks, as long as they are calculated risks. Their investments will not be risk-free, but they are risks they have already factored in.  The rest is as good as anybody’s guess.

 

By definition, a stopgap is something that serves as a temporary expedient.  It is only supposed to be in place provisionally, until a genuine solution is found.  With our current nation-wide flooding devastation, the volume and velocity of water reaching Bangkok is beyond the expediency any makeshift measures. Nature, in her fury can never be stopped, but we human can survive by being pliable with her, so as not to be broken by her.

 

Thailand did not escape the hand of powerful colonialism by rigidly standing up against it.  We escaped because of our “bend with the wind” strategy. Mohammad Ali did not become a greatest boxing champ because he was best at butting head; he was great because he was nimble and smart.

 

If this fight against looming Bangkok flooding calamity is a war, the way we are doing it, defeat is the only option we have. Water has to flow some place, if not here and now, it’s then and there. It does not just evaporate, it cannot be stopped, where will it go next?  Our floods management team has tried to divert it, block it, chase it, sweep it, to the point where we know not which way it goes, where the end of the diversion lines lead, where, when and how the water mass will go out to the sea.  Water flows where it must and can; we cannot pull it by the nose and expect it to last; chicken comes home to roost, and raging waters will come back to haunt.  If Bangkok, or part of it will be allowed to flood, where, when, how much, and how long? Many of us may love the high of suspense, but not the kind of suspense caused by cluelessness. 

 

The long-term, sustainable and effective solution to the recurring flooding problems that are occurring more frequently in Thailand will require wisdom and expertise to lay out a sound and well-coordinated, coherent strategy and tactic which may take years to complete and implement.  If it succeeds, we may someday find ourselves worry-free of flood during the deluge of rains and high tides, and of draught during the dry season.  They are the twin evils of the poor national water management and planning. 

 

Meanwhile, people are losing their mind with the unknowns, and the “binge and purge” dry-today, flood-tomorrow, hapless thingamajig crisis handling measures.  They cannot plan ahead, they cannot quit worrying, they are despondent, and they are getting angrier as they push their limit of tolerance and endurance.

 

None of these can bode well for the sustainability of the current government.

 

In the face of enormous flooding problem, the stopgap measures have to cease.  They are doing more harm and good. What we need is a malleable, smart and coherent new strategy.  We need flood management measures that are disciplined, yet fully respect the nature of water and the way it behaves.  We can ride out this crisis on nature’s back, not against her. Controlling and defeating this amount of water is in the end, a losing exertion, cajoling it may not. Mechanical makeshift and panicky piecemeal measures may win some battles, but they will lose the war. Wisdom, courage, and coherent collaboration are the self-consciousness of crisis resolution. 

 

It is said that for man, the most difficult challenge of all is to change the way we think.  But with this flooding crisis, change the way it thinks, our government must.