Before long, something must give in Syria

The death toll in Syria has passed 3,000, according to a United Nations estimate. And yet, the carnage in Syria continues unabated. Intimidation is not confined to Syrian soil, however. Recently, the US Federal Bureau of Investigation arrested a Syrian-born US citizen accused of spying for the government of Bashar al-Assad. The suspect appears to have been part of a global operation that kept a tab on Syrians living outside the country actively campaigning against the regime in Damascus.

Their information is used against family members of activists living in Syria.

The question right now is: Can the government outlast the protestors? The uprising is in its eight month and neither side is showing signs of backing down. As other nations have seen, relying heavily on a security presence is not sustainable. Sooner or later, Assad will fall.

For the time being, the inner capital city appeared to be peaceful and calm. But the cities and towns outside the capital tell a different story. Part of this apparent calm stems from the fact that the Assad regime can still count on its base for support. Pro-government rallies are carried out and give the impression the regime is sound and stable. The military, for the time being, is still intact.

But behind the surface are ongoing mass arrests that have taken their toll on the pro-democracy movement. For the time being, the government seems confident it can contain the revolt. But whether this effort is sustainable is another matter.

Some in the international community are not helpful, unfortunately. Instead of supporting the pro-democracy protest movement, Russia and China recently vetoed a UN Security Council resolution condemning the regime’s actions.

Meanwhile, the UN Human Rights Commission has warned that Damascus’ actions may constitute crimes against humanity.

“The United States is outraged that this council has utterly failed to address an urgent moral challenge,” said the American ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, in response to the veto.

“Today, the courageous people of Syria can now clearly see who on this council supports their yearning for liberty and universal rights — and who does not.”

Indeed, there’s concern that Syria could turn into a war-zone like Libya, where Nato forces supported an uprising that succeeded in toppling long-time dictator Muammar Gadhafi.

But Rice rightly dismissed that excuse: “Let there be no doubt: This is not about military intervention. This is not about Libya. That is a cheap ruse by those who would rather sell arms to the Syrian regime than stand with the Syrian people.”

The Arab League has called on Syria to carry out a national dialogue to end the violence and to prevent possible foreign intervention. Their concerns were met with accusations by the Syrian government, which accused them of being lackeys of the US and Israel.

But with thousands killed and jailed, and more than 10,000 Syrians forced to flee their homes for the Turkish border, the international community will have to come up with better ways to punish or isolate Assad. But the world cannot move forward with unity if there is no unity. Something has to give and countries doing business with Assad’s regime will have to think hard about what kind of concessions they are willing to make. If it means sanctions and boycotts, so be it.

Taking a lead on this matter is the Turkish government. Once a close ally and trading partner of Syria, Ankara has permitted not only Syrian refugees to stay but allowed opposition forces to meet in Turkey. Obviously, Turkey cares what average Syrian people think of them. They know they will be judged by history.