A good way to ensure that Plan A remains on track

You don’t test the waters with something like this when your dear sister is facing a political hurricane as prime minister and looking increasingly likely to have a nervous breakdown in public – pure and simple. The pardon push was meant to be one big gamble, but Thaksin has folded his cards just before the showdown. Exactly why is debatable, and many reasons may have to be factored in.

Initially, it looked as though the timing was right. The flood disaster was making any organised street opposition to a pardon unlikely if not impossible. To make this move when Yingluck Shinawatra’s popularity was being dealt a blow was risky, but it would have been even riskier later if her bruised image doesn’t recover. The Thai military is rebuilding its name through the flood crisis, and that minimises the chances of the men in uniform reverting to the “bad guy” role too soon. With His Majesty’s birthday a few days away, the time to act had to be right away.

These were seemingly reasonable assessments. But in this era, political uproar doesn’t have to take place on the streets. A Facebook page dedicated to denouncing the pardon plan surpassed 100,000 “likes” in just over a day. Twitter was swamped by abusive comments that pro- and anti-Thaksin zealots hurled at each other, edging out flood emergency messages. TV and newspaper reports were dominated by the explosive political story, which only made things worse for the government when flood victims were shown still searching desperately for food and clean drinking water. The yellow shirts, the multi-coloured group and university academics were among those lambasting the administration. Opinion polls confirmed that, by and large, Thais do not support a pardon, at least for now. Flood relief donations made through the government, already shrinking because of a management scandal, threatened to dry up.

Last but not least, the Democrats lodged censure and impeachment motions against Justice Minister Pracha Promnok last week. He is purportedly to be grilled in connection with how relief supplies have been controversially handled, but the opposition has left little doubt that the real agenda will be something else. How legal principles, royal traditions and even the spirit of the Constitution were being bent in the pardon push will be ideal ammunition to ricochet off Pracha and on to Yingluck. 

Thaksin’s letter declaring his readiness to make a personal sacrifice for the sake of national peace then looked to be just a matter of time. It came over the weekend and was, within hours, followed by Justice Minister Pracha’s announcement that this year’s royal pardon would not include the former leader. The political temperature subsequently dropped almost as fast as it had risen last week. The yellow shirts cancelled a planned gathering at the head office of the Council of State. The print and broadcast media switched back to the flood emergency.      

It can only be described as a U-turn, a quick retreat after an attempt at a smash-and-grab robbery appeared in jeopardy. Some believe that Thaksin had only wanted to test the public reaction and his enemies’ strength, so that he can perfect his real strike, probably next year. But all indications show that it isn’t quite like that. This is more like trying Plan B before Plan A because the former looked attractive and convenient all of a sudden. 

Plan A, of course, features a Parliament-endorsed general amnesty. Not only will it be more politically correct than a Cabinet-enacted pardon decree, Plan A will give Thaksin a comprehensive get-out-of-jail card. In other words, if a pardon decree cannot ensure that he gets off the hook for his current sentence and four remaining cases in which he still faces trial, a general amnesty law can.    

Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung yesterday confirmed that the highly contentious matter of whether Thaksin should walk free was heading to Parliament, a place where it is more suited. So, Plan A is back on track. What has happened to Plan B, though, will serve as a warning to everyone about how easily flammable this issue is. Most floodwater will be gone by the time an amnesty bill is debated, but whether that’s good or bad news, nobody can tell.