I beg your pardon ... Is amnesty in the works or not?

Foreign Minister Surapong Towichukchaikul, however, informed reporters while visiting Abu Dhabi a day later, when asked whether he thought Thaksin would have a chance of coming home: “That is certain. I told the UAE that he [Thaksin] will surely return to Thailand and that he won’t be here [in Dubai] for too long. He will be home soon.”

These two statements don’t necessarily contradict each other. In fact, they could end up being the same message. Thai observers have got used to being confused by such public declarations that appear divergent but finally morph in the same political direction.

The statements were made just after the alleged plan to put Thaksin on the list of 30,000 prisoners seeking a royal pardon on the occasion of His Majesty the King’s 84th birthday. When things got too politically complicated, the idea was withdrawn, so much so that the ousted former premier had to issue a handwritten note insisting that he didn’t want to be part of the annual pardon.

But Deputy Premier Chalerm Yoonbamrung isn’t giving up. He, in fact, teased us that the media had been sent into a frenzy over the story by a well-orchestrated plan to confuse reporters. He claimed that the so-called “royal pardon for Thaksin” was never in the works in the first place – and the “secret” Cabinet session that the media had linked to the move to help Thaksin was in fact never part of the plan.

The real action, he said, would be in an amnesty bill that he is working on. He told both the media and other politicians, with equal enthusiasm, that the general amnesty campaign will continue. In principle, he said, the bill will be tabled in Parliament but the steps towards implementation will have to be carefully thought out. But he left no doubt that it’s going to be his personal campaign.

“I will personally draw up the bill with an expert legal team,” the deputy premier said, adding that the bill won’t only provide clemency for Thaksin. It will benefit “all sectors, be they yellow shirts, red shirts and anybody who suffered from the September 19, 2006 coup”, he said.

But then a few days later, Chalerm announced that he would no longer talk about the proposed amnesty. He didn’t say why. Nor did he explain why his noble scheme to offer amnesty to everybody affected by the coup was suddenly put on the backburner.

Perhaps, it was another ploy by the veteran politician to catch his critics unawares. It might be another ruse he is very good at to lead people astray. He probably wants to have the last laugh over his detractors and the media, who have been following every step of his grand plan to get the former prime minister back to Thailand, one way or the other.

We the innocent observers will have to listen to all sides to be able to keep up with these shrewd politicians. Kaewsun Atibodhi, a Thaksin critic, suggested that the Yingluck government, having dropped the royal decree bid in the wake of vehement opposition from certain quarters, may turn to a constitutional amendment as a way to bring Thaksin back to Thailand.

He said amending the Charter is “the only legal channel left” for Thaksin’s supporters to get him back into the country without facing his prison term. Legal experts speculate that the Pheu Thai-led government may resort to the removal of Article 309 of the Constitution, which legitimises all actions taken by the 2006 coup-makers. 

But that would be too obvious a move. To come up with a proper cover that the government could claim would “benefit all people affected by the coup”, the deletion of that particular clause in the Constitution would be tantamount to helping only Thaksin. Chalerm’s game plan is a more broad-based bill that would offer amnesty to all. And that, inescapably, includes Thaksin.

But any move that could be seen to be directed at absolving the former premier from all criminal guilt could be politically divisive. And Thaksin has made it clear that he doesn’t want to be “part of the problem” of the country.

The complications are numerous. The legal channels are limited. The powers-that-be want to make sure any move in that direction won’t kick up a major uproar that could shake their own political stability. 

Hence the continuing confusion – and the inherent political tension that you and I have been suffering from for many years. The malaise remains with us. Hoping against hope, we pray that we will see light at the end of the tunnel in the not-too-distant future.