Changes in the Cabinet only five months into the new govt's term

Pheu Thai sources said the transport, education, energy, commerce, agriculture and industry portfolios could be reshuffled.

Wannarat Charn-nukul, the industry minister, said he would not accept the industry post after the reshuffle due to health problems, while Pheu Thai wanted to take back the Agriculture Ministry from the Chat Thai Pattana Party so the ruling party has complete control over mega-infrastructure projects on water resource management.

Regarding the finance portfolio, Kittirat Na Ranong, the deputy premier and commerce minister, may leave the commerce portfolio to take up finance, 

In addition, Sukumphol Suwannatat, the transport minister; Worawat Ur-apinyakul, the education minister; and Pichai Naripthaphun, the energy minister; could also be replaced due to weak performance.

The expected Cabinet reshuffle is relatively early since the government has been working for only four months. Banharn Silapa-archa, chairman of Chat Thai Pattana, had asked Pheu Thai to delay the reshuffle until May so that ministers have more time to work.

In May, a group of 111 politicians formerly belonging to Thaksin Shinawatra’s Thai Rak Thai and related parties will be free to carry on political work after a five-year ban by the Constitutional Court following the disbanding of Thai Rak Thai due to electoral fraud. Some of these veteran politicians could be chosen to take up important portfolios in the next Yingluck Cabinet.

At this stage, a group of Pheu Thai MPs are fiercely vying for posts in the new Cabinet by preparing to visit the premier’s elder brother, Thaksin, overseas. Thaksin fled the country in 2008 to avoid a two-year jail term for abuse of power under the anti-graft law. These government MPs include Cholanan Sri-kaew, the Nan MP; Pong Chivanan, the Ayutthaya MP; Piraphun Pansuk, the Yasothon MP; and Nophakhun Ratpatai, the Chiang Mai MP. They were promised Cabinet portfolios following the last election in July last year.

This reshuffle could be seen as reward for these loyalists who missed the chance last time.

Another Cabinet reshuffle is also likely in May after the court’s five-year ban imposed on the former Thai Rak Thai MPs ends. Veterans like Pongsak Ratanapongpaisarn, a former transport minister and close aide of Thaksin, and  Varathep Rattanakorn, a former deputy finance minister, are expected to return to the political arena and take up Cabinet portfolios.

In terms of policies, one of Pheu Thai’s key challenges is now the transfer of the Bt1.14-trillion legacy debt from the Finance Ministry to the Bank of Thailand, which might run into trouble. The opposition Democrat Party is preparing to seek a ruling by the Constitutional Court on whether the government’s use of an emergency decree to transfer such a huge public debt is unconstitutional.

Another key policy challenge is the floating of retail oil and gas prices just five months after winning the last election on a platform of oil and gas price cuts. From January 16 onwards, the diesel price will be raised by Bt0.60, bringing it to nearly Bt31 per litre for the first time since the previous Abhisit government capped the price at Bt30.

Due to the Oil Fund’s fast-growing deficit of Bt14 billion, the government has signalled it can no longer continue generous subsidies on oil and gas prices.