The plot thickens

Chavalit Yongchaiyudh has re-emerged with a surprisingly coherent open letter on how to get Thai politics back to normal. Parliament is hell-bent on drafting an amnesty blueprint, although the Constitution is yet to be amended. Former coup leader Sonthi Boonyaratglin and retiring political big-wig Sanan Kachornprasart are exchanging encrypted public messages on a daily basis.

If you’re wondering what’s going on, keep in mind that when a movie heads to its climax, the main characters have to act weirder and weirder. The following summation of key players’ roles is not meant to shed light on the murkiness of the present situation; it’s just a wrap-up so you’re updated with the plot and thus able to fully enjoy the upcoming episode.

Sonthi Boonyaratglin: He’s that modern-age character you see a lot in today’s mini-series. You know, one-minute-the-hero, one-minute-the-villain. The former general who toppled Thaksin Shinawatra in a 2006 coup now chairs an ad hoc House committee poised to report to Parliament on why the military takeover was totally wrong.

Why is Sonthi doing this? If you believe a Thai Post headline, he seems to have struck some sort of deal with Thaksin. If you aren’t that cynical, Sonthi simply regrets what he did in 2006 and now wants to help pluck the country out of the abyss he believes he helped put it in.

The third theory is that Sonthi is not actually remorseful but is smart enough to know how the political winds blow. His current action, therefore, is more for himself than anybody else.

The fourth theory is a bit of everything. He somewhat regrets the coup and wants to make amends, partly to protect himself as the Thaksin camp’s “quest for justice” could land him in legal trouble. His change of heart suits his former enemies and both sides agreed to work on accelerating a reconciliation plan that includes absolution for the man he took out of power.

You may argue that he has said something that may not fit any of the theories: “If I could go back in time, I would still do it (stage the coup) again,” he told Kom Chad Luek TV programme. What he left unsaid probably was: “And I would advocate total amnesty for Thaksin again.”

Sanan Kachornprasart: He has unequivocally announced he will quit politics when the current House of Representatives ends. But virtually in the same breath, he challenged General Sonthi to confirm whether the coup had a mysterious mastermind. What is Sanan’s motive in stirring up a hornet’s nest? Is someone behind him, just as he believes that there was someone behind Sonthi regarding the coup?

According to the first theory, Sanan is just jealous. If you remember the billboards he put up last year, he has always aspired to be the peacemaker (not “a” peacemaker, but “the” peacemaker). Sonthi is the last person on earth Sanan wants to steal that title from him.

The second theory is the opposite of the first. Sanan doesn’t want to discredit Sonthi. In fact, Sanan’s “challenge” helps rekindle the coup myth. As long as there are doubts that somebody else was behind the coup, Sonthi benefits. This theory goes well with Sonthi’s suggestion that if there were really coup secrets, they would die with him.

Chavalit Yongchaiyudh: At first glance, his open letter backing amnesty and virtually slamming the coup looks like a last-minute attempt to jump on the bring-Thaksin-back bandwagon. Knowing him, that would be too simple, wouldn’t it? Quite a few people believe that Chavalit is central in the amnesty push, a behind-the-scenes figure working under an old reputation of being among the architects of the 66/23 programme that rehabilitated communist insurgents in the 80s.

Chavalit has never been publicly asked if he favours absolution for Thaksin. He may confuse you with his answer, but there are those who believe he has gone far beyond favouring the idea now and is a main man in trying to make it come true.    

Chalerm Yoobamrung: At least we have one straightforward character in this deputy prime minister. He doesn’t accept that his motive is only to help his boss Thaksin, but that would be a confession nobody needed. Chalerm repeatedly claims he has finished drafting a “reconciliation” bill that will be good for everyone. To distace the government and Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra from the bill, he says it will be sponsored by MPs who supposedly have no incentives in helping Thaksin.

Will Chalerm’s bill ever make it to the House floor? If it does, we may see another defining moment in Thai politics. Depending on where you come from, the bill will be either the (Star Wars) rebels’ last shot at the Death Star, or the Death Star itself. Either way, all hell could break loose because of it. 

Abhisit Vejjajiva: He is Chalerm’s opposite number, an uncomplicated fighter with a clear-cut mission to torpedo any amnesty plan that could benefit Thaksin. Outnumbered in Parliament, Abhisit’s party is resorting to the only viable strategy – boycott the “one-sided” reconciliation process and hope the move chips away at its legitimacy. 

Nitirat academics: Their campaign to undo the legal consequences of the coup could have lent better weight to the amnesty idea. To expand that campaign to cover the issues of the monarchy may be idealistic, but it’s definitely unwise.

King Prajadhipok Institute researchers: They always utter the script line, “I don’t know what to believe anymore”. One important fact that may influence their future course, though, is a close connection between one of their leaders and Chavalit Yongchaiyudh.

Thirayuth Boonmee: He’s probably too old to be compared to Katniss Everdeen. (If you’re a fan of the “Hunger Games” trilogy, you’ll know what I’m talking about.) But the former freedom fighter looks truly a man in an ideological dilemma, the way Katniss regarded dictatorship, democracy and rebellion and how the three could get totally messed up.