Predictions for China over the next three decades

The future economic prospects are considered by three leading Chinese thinkers. Professor Wu Jinglian, the most respected Chinese economist of his generation, argues that reforms have gone into deep water due to the complex battle against vested interests and rent-seeking activities. There is no alternative except to deepen reforms, particularly re-balancing the playing field between minyin (private) enterprises and the dominant state-owned enterprises.  

Tsinghua University Professor Li Daokui considers that the three great challenges facing sustainable development are an open mind, more inclusive and harmonious development, and formulating China’s role in global affairs as a major power. 

Returned scholar Wang Huiyao examines the strengths and weakness of the “Chinese models of development”. He clearly recognises that the pragmatic and adaptive models of the past may not work in the future as sustainable development faces a more complex, interactive and geo-politically fragile world, especially in the ecological, resources and energy issues.   

The political challenges are considered by two thoughtful commentators.  In considering Chinese politics within the geo-political order, Peking University professor Pan Wei argues that any bright prospects in the next 30 years will depend on three key conditions: no economic vacillation; no political distraction; and no international partiality. He refutes the argument that there has been no political reform, since the massive economic reforms could not have been possible without significant changes in China’s political system. At the same time, the pillar of China’s politics has been its civilisational constancy, based on its humanist democracy, meritocracy at all levels of government, and a unified ruling group.  

Fellow Peking University professor Yu Keping identifies the challenges of governance reform as social inequality, corruption, social instability, crime, environmental degradation and ignorance of citizens’ human rights. He recognises the need for a realistic review of China’s socialist democratic theories, but also a rethink of popular Western democratic theories. 

On the new global order, Nobel laureate Robert Fogel’s essay warns that China’s future geo-political position may be stronger than estimated. Taking a long historical and demographic view, he sees Chinese income per capita being double that of Europe by 2040 and accounting for nearly 40 per cent of world GDP, significantly larger than the US and Europe. His higher estimates are due to currently favourable demographics, good education and resilience in the political system, overtaking ageing population in the West with a different work and lifestyle.   

Singapore diplomat Tommy Koh echoes the recognition that China will become more powerful in terms of soft and hard power, and hopes that China will continue to practice good neighbourliness, play a constructive role in global governance and embrace sustainable development.

Five out of the 17 essays are devoted to green growth, with the best article by Tsinghua professor Hu Angang, who sees a “Green Vision” as China’s third generation of modernisation. He powerfully argues that the idea of greenness is essentially the ancient Chinese philosophy of the harmony of man with nature, and that innovation and realisation of green modernisation is a civilisational objective that has global benefits.  

The message of cutting carbon emissions, clean energy, green technological innovation, and the central importance of Chinese agriculture and rural development are reinforced by essays by Copenhagen professor Bjorn Lomborg, Swiss agriculturalist Hans Herren, Worldwatch president Christopher Flavin and Shanghai professor Li Wuwei.   

The last and longest essay is an intriguing and wide-spanning exploration on China’s “Civilisation-State Model” by Malaysian-born, India-based scholar Tan Chung. He argues that China is the longest surviving civilisation-state that is actually a commonwealth of different tribes, languages and cultural communities that have lived within its borders for more than 2,000 years.   China has absorbed different cultures, particularly Buddhism from India, more recently Marxism from the West, and has evolved its own concept of “grand universal harmony”. He laments the fact that many modern Chinese scholars have learnt “whole-hog Westernisation of China” without drawing upon the inner cultural confidence of ancient China. 

His suggestion that the Chinese leadership is differentiating between the “kingly ways” versus the “hegemonic way” echoes an important book by Tsinghua political scientist Yan Xuetong, which I shall review shortly.   Professor Yan argues that modern statecraft depends on kingship, founded by humane authority and strong moral standing. Hence, for China to be a superpower modelled on humane authority, she has to forge a harmonious society from which other states are willing to learn. 

The fundamental contribution of this book is that it has pointed the way on how China intends to move towards a harmonious, green economy through the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015). This is a bold and arduous journey unprecedented in history in terms of scale and difficulties.  All global citizens must wish for its success, because its failure could have geo-political consequences beyond contemplation. 

Andrew Sheng is president of Fung Global Institute (www.fungglobalinstitute.org).