Myanmar must stay vigilant as reforms spur interest

The most difficult time for a human being is his or her dying moment. I didn’t have the courage to tell my father about the recent violent crackdown on Buddhist monks staging a sit-in protest at the Letpadaungtaung copper mine.

The future of the Letpadaungtaung copper mine, to continue or suspend it,  will be decided by an appointed commission. However, the Taunggup Commission and the Rakhine Commission in the Rakhine State have yet to disclose their findings, and therefore the copper mine Probe Commission is required to do more additional work.

I am of the view that the copper mine issue may not go down the same path as the Myitsone hydropower dam project in Kachin State. But the process must be transparent. It must be beneficial to the nation and local communities. In no way should local residents be subjected to physical abuse.

Earlier, this copper mine project was the undertaking of the Ministry of Mines and the Ivanhoe Company. The project was sold to Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited (UMEHL) and the Chinese Wanbao Company. UMEHL purchased the scheme from the Ministry of Mines at a price of US$100 million, and the amount was said to be funded by Wanbao Company. 

Compounding the situation was the involvement of Htoo Trading Company in the buying and selling. The Chinese ambassador in Yangon denied that there was no brokerage fee or commission payment by the Chinese company.

Currently, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is heading a commission to look into any irregularities in these deals. The commission needs to find out whether this copper mine will bring profit or revenue after 30 years, similar to the Myitsone dam project. Ironically, the investment stands at $997 million and the physical investment is said to be $10 million, supported with a loan of $987 million. Such figures trigger serious contemplation.

What I understand is that the country will enjoy only 4 per cent revenue on the metal extracted, and that the remaining dividend will be shared when the actual profit is realised. However, looking into the basic mine design, the cost and value of the machinery works out at $36 billion – a terrible financial outcome for which the country and UMEHL will suffer.

Despite demands to suspend the copper mine, there are opportunities to settle and address the issue peacefully. Unfortunately, stakeholders and concerned parties are inexperienced at peaceful approaches; many are still trying to come to terms with the new reality and what they have inherited from the previous autocratic system.

Incidentally, in the aftermath of the visit to Myanmar by US President Barack Obama, a spate of problems emerged. Cronyism continues, media reform is in retreate, there have been violent crackdowns on the protesters, and a stall in democratic reforms. Another point of concern is that hardliners are making their presence felt in and around the government.

The most disturbing situation is seen with the opposition to the aspirations of the ethnic minorities to craft a federal union. This has been marred by the demand for the creation of an independent Wa State in the border areas. The region occupied by the United Wa State Army (UWSA) has about 600,000 people, mostly ethnic Wa. The UWSA has 30,000 armed troops and an additional 20,000 reservists ready to take up arms if need be.

The majority of the UWSA leaders were born in mainland China. The lingua franca of the region is Chinese, and the common currency in the UWSA-controlled region is the yuan. The Wa run a television station that transmits in the Chinese language.

The UWSA has its own foreign policy, makes direct and separate deals with the Chinese, and businessmen from China bypass the Myanmar government with their investments, and operate tin mines in Wa areas without informing the Myanmar central government. The Wa region could be termed as a state within the state.

The previous regime in Myanmar owed a great deal of gratitude to China for its support in the international forum. I am of the view that China is not the benefactor and sponsor of Myanmar and its people. China is not even a friendly country. It is only a neighbouring country.

At a time when the countries of the world, including Asean nations, are supporting the government and Aung San Suu Kyi on democratisation, reforms and national reconciliation, the Chinese government is concentrating its own interest and ignoring the desire of the Myanmar people. Beijing continues to apply pressure on the Myanmar government on various issues.

China never recognises the democratic reforms in Myanmar or acknowledges the desire of the people of Myanmar.

Now, Myanmar is in a tight spot – with the threat of falling into isolation in Asia, and with strained relationships with Asean nations, Japan and South Korea.

At this critical time, the Chinese government is forging close relationships with those who want to backslide and make a sharp turn on democratic process.

If the Chinese government wants to avoid another opposing neighbour – similar to Vietnam – it should change its foreign policy. We never felt sorrow or regret when the Chinese ambassador said that Chinese investment might be withdrawn. It is in our interest to see transparent and decent investment in our country.

The laying of natural gas pipelines from Kyaukphyu to Kunming, the railway connections, the construction of highways and their completion, are all interrelated with the affairs of Kachin State, the affairs of the Wa region and democratisation.

When China acts as a good neighbour, then Myanmar will surely become a friendly nation too.

As the next door neighbour of a superpower, we must always be attentive and alert. The government must never forget that it is now building a democratic nation, and the president should bravely stay the course. He must remember the promises he has given to the nation.

Being a nation sandwiched between two big countries, being a strategic point in Asia, being a state that was for many years under dictatorial rule, if we intend to move ahead, we must have justice, we must have courage, and we must be vigilant.

 

Dr Than Htut Aung is CEO of Eleven Media, Myanmar. This is an excerpt from his “I Will Tell The Real Truth” series.