Conflict in Syria could get worse if peace talks fail

Members of Syria’s main opposition group got together this past week in Turkey to fine-tune their position before a planned international conference in Geneva in June when they will sit with the international community to pave the way for a possible political solution to the crisis that have claims about 80,000 lives.

At the meeting an exit strategy for President Bashir Assad was put forth by Sheik Moaz al-Khatib, the former opposition leader who resigned from his post in March. The Sheik proposed that Bashir should be permitted to leave Syria with 500 people of his choosing and that there would be no legal retribution against government soldiers.

But the mood on the ground appeared to be indifferent to the proposal. Force, they said, is the only way to get Bashir out of power. They are demanding that Assad and his loyalists pay for their alleged crimes.

But even if the plan gained support from rebel forces on the ground, Assad has consistently maintained that he has no plan to step down.

His position appeared to have been strengthened by the fact that over this recent days Syrian armed forces has been gaining upper hand against the rebel forces. US Secretary of State John Kerry was quick to downplay the battlefield advances by the government troops, saying the two-year-old conflict has swung back and forth both ways.

But while is no major shift on the battlefield, the conflict has effectively become a regional one. Lebanon-based Hezbollah militant group has already sent their militia to Syria to help Assad. And with the help of this Iran-backed group, government forces has managed to make some advances in a few towns, including Qusair, a major logistical centre for the anti-government forces that situated near the Lebanese border.

On the diplomatic side, Russia has also provided $300 million worth of surface-to-air missiles to the Assad’s regime. The move, needless to say, infuriated the friend-of-Syria coalition, especially the US.

Russia, because of its determination to protect its naval port in Syria and the oil and gas markets in the region, has to be given assurances that a post-Assad scenario would not come at their expense.

Like the US, Moscow is also concern with the possibility that Syria could end up as a state runs by radical jihadists who have already established a solid presence on the ground fighting along side the rebel forces.

And of course there is the Golan Heights, a Syrian territory occupied by Israel. The recent Israeli airstrike against a weapon shipment in the hands of Hezbollah has jolted Damascus.

If Bashir thinks that his recent gains on the ground and diplomatic front will be a game changer, he needs to think again. The man has miscalculated repeatedly. Most notable is the fact that he underestimated the determination of his own citizens who decided two years ago to take up arms against him.

This is an important juncture for Assad and he needs to negotiate in good faith in the upcoming peace talks sponsored by the US and Russia. If not, it is very likely that Washington will switch from non-lethal aid to military hardware to the rebel forces. Moscow has taken the lead in doing this. The US is likely to follow suit if the upcoming meeting is not fruitful. The ball, it seems, is in Bashir’s court.