It is good that they are meeting a few months earlier than planned. Before intervening distractions arise, it would be helpful if the two leaders are able to deepen their personal rapport in the relaxed ambience of the Californian venue. It is important to set the right tone for cooperation, as regional if not global stability rides very much on how these powers, the world’s two largest economies, conduct their relations.
Beyond immediate trouble-shooting, Xi and Obama can and should help their countries’ ties mature. The two sides have dozens of mechanisms for communication and cooperation at various levels, including the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue and the China-US High-Level Consultation on People-to-People Exchange. They certainly should, as Xi suggests, make the most of these, but there is nothing like a summit to reset the way the leaders view and deal with each other.
Xi may propose an approach that includes sharing global leadership and a gradual end to regional alliances. This may call into question existing American arrangements with allies and, in particular, Obama’s “pivot” towards Asia that depends on such arrangements.
Serious consideration should be given to whether the alliance-based system has become as obsolete as the Cold War. Global shifts call for a new long-term perspective, which is nowhere more urgently needed than in northeast Asia, where Chinese and American interests overlap, along with those of their respective allies, North Korea and Japan.
A new relationship model can help ease American angst about Chinese influence over North Korea and China’s fear of untoward consequences should it bring Pyongyang under ultimate pressure. Similarly, tension over China’s Diaoyu/Senkaku claim can be lowered if Sino-US ties are placed on a more balanced footing.
The United States will continue to play an important role in the region, alongside China’s expansion of its global role. Both sides can make more progress through cooperation rather than confrontation. This in turn depends very much on whether Xi and Obama succeed in building trust when they meet.