US-China ties won't be hurt by Snowden
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The "world's most important bilateral relationship" will ride through the Edward Snowden squall intact, despite strong words from the White House over his flight from Hong Kong on Sunday, analysts say.
In the larger scheme of things, the United States and China will want to move on from the episode as quickly as possible. As University of Nottingham scholar Steve Tsang said: “The basic US-China relationship is driven by far greater forces and the overall impact will therefore be limited.”
The US registered strong objections to the authorities in Hong Kong and China through diplomatic channels at the decision to let Snowden leave despite an extradition request. It “noted that such behaviour is detrimental to US-Hong Kong and US-China bilateral relations”, said White House National Security Council spokesman Caitlin Hayden.
While the Hong Kong government insists Snowden left of his own will and according to the law after a provisional US arrest warrant purportedly failed to meet its judicial requirements, sources have said that Beijing had orchestrated the move to remove a thorny issue.
The fear was that it could destabilise Sino-US ties if Snowden stayed on to fight a legal battle in Hong Kong that could last up to five years.
This line of thinking was lent further heft by Democratic Party lawmaker Albert Ho, who said yesterday he had been hired as Snowden’s lawyer and had relayed a message from a mystery intermediary telling Snowden he should leave the city. Said Ho: “I have reasons to believe that ... those who wanted him to leave represented Beijing authorities.”
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Hua Chunying did not confirm this despite being asked thrice at a briefing.
While Hong Kong enjoys autonomy under the “one country two systems” framework, Beijing has the final say over its defence and diplomacy. Said Hong Kong-based Chinese researcher Chen Shaobo: “It is clearly a diplomatic (issue), and therefore Beijing would be involved.”
Other analysts said the two powers are keen not to mar the camaraderie created after presidents Xi Jinping and Barack Obama’s tete-a-tete in California earlier this month. Renmin University scholar Shi Yinhong said Beijing might even have informed Washington of Snowden’s departure in advance, reflecting a tacit understanding.
Certainly, politicians on both sides have largely refrained from criticising each other over the case of Snowden, who has alleged US hacking of China’s mobile phone and computer networks.
Hua yesterday said China has lodged a protest with the US over this, but also stressed that it was in the interests of China and the US to develop ties in a “stable and healthy way”.
Snowden’s departure is a good outcome for US-China ties in the long run, say the analysts. As Professor Anthony Saich of Harvard University said, Beijing was happy to see him leave Hong Kong “so that it did not produce an endless running war of words between the US, Hong Kong and China”.
“Also, I think the US is probably glad that Hong Kong will not be used for revelations about its surveillance activities in the Asia region,” he added.
