Time for Hun Sen to change his ways

The outcome of last week’s elections is a very strong indication that the time has come for the region’s longest-serving leader, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, to take one of two options: either he share his absolute power with the opposition, or with such a defeat under his belt, he must leave politics altogether. His party, Cambodia People’s Party, won only 68 out of 123 seats, while the Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP) gained 55 seats. It was an unexpected avalanche eating into his longstanding political legitimacy and credibility. Hun Sen is no longer the outspoken figure he once was. He has also been silent, as he is no doubt contemplating his next move – one that would show his true colours again.

In retrospect, Cambodia has been lucky because the United Nations was willing to spend so much money, estimated at US$3 billion, to ensure that the country remained the biggest-ever success in the history of the UN – transforming the war-torn country into a peaceful one. That was accomplished in 1993 after the first UN-sponsored elections were held. Since then, the rise of Hun Sen and his cronies has dominated the politics of Cambodia.

From now on, with the opposition’s strong support from voters, political changes are coming to Cambodia. Hun Sen will not be able to pursue his now-familiar Machiavellian strategy of divide- and-rule, which has kept him in power for three decades. Hun Sen might want to lure away the opposition to join him as he has done before, but unlike the 2008 elections, this time the CNRC is united. If this effort fails, Hun Sen might contemplate forming a coalition with the opposition if the investigation he promised on the electoral outcome turns out badly. Irregularities in this election were widely reported, so he will need to play down the controversy to retain whatever credibility is left for him.

A coalition government at this time is preferable for Cambodia for two reasons. First, it can provide the continuity of change. With three decades in power, this kind of transformation is bloodless. Second, it is the cure for “Hun Sen fatigue”, and with others to deal with, Hun Sen should be more humble this time around.

The CPP will continue to retain important Cabinet positions leaving the others for the opposition. The next few weeks will be crucial. In the past, Hun Sen could afford to drag his feet but this time he does not have such luxury. He needs to accept the election results and the new political direction. Otherwise, Hun Sen’s supporters – especially China – will be very concerned about Cambodia’s future.