Indonesia's poll: Will Suharto's legacy last?

A politically vibrant society has emerged, with younger Indonesians insisting their country is a model for Southeast Asia and is worthy of an influential role in global affairs.

Could the 2014 elections prove them right? A comparison between the politics of Suharto’s New Order era and those now could provide the answer.

 

New assertiveness

Indonesia is already at the forefront of regional efforts to promote rights, free elections and doctrines of humanitarian intervention. Influential Indonesian policymakers and commentators have also called for an end to the long-standing Southeast Asian obsession with state sovereignty and non-interference in domestic affairs. They assert that Indonesia should play a global role as the world’s s16th largest economy, which is growing between 5 and 6 per cent every year. It is also boasts the world’s the largest Muslim population and a strategic location between the Indian and Pacific oceans.

Yet just 15 years ago Indonesia was ruled by an all-powerful leader with more modest ambitions for his country. General Suharto seized power after an attempted coup by the Communist Party of Indonesia (PKI) in October 1965. Over 30 years, he built a highly centralised administration, focused on economic development. He also restored Indonesia’s relationships with the West and Indonesia’s regional neighbours. However, these achievements came at the cost of massive corruption, a top-down palace-centred structure and the depoliticisation of Indonesian society. These factors undermined his regime in the Asian financial crisis of 1997-’98.

Only now is a re-assessment of Suharto’s rule beginning to take place. However, emotions are still raw and it will be difficult for Suharto’s supporters to restore him to the pantheon of Indonesian heroes. 

Suharto is remembered as a dictator whose family obtained immense wealth through their access to his office while he ruled with an iron fist. However, it is forgotten that his preference for simplicity in his lifestyle at his modest home in Jalan Cendana in Central Jakarta, shaped the approach of his administration. 

While Suharto presided over major events and made formal speeches, he was most at home talking informally to farmers and fishermen.

Fuelled by his interest in agricultural issues, Indonesia attained self-sufficiency in rice production.

 

Mini Suhartos?

A surprising feature of Indonesia today is the continuing presence of so many leading personalities from Suharto’s New Order regime. Prominent names from the past such as former vice-president Jusuf Kalla, Golkar chairman Aburizal Bakrie and former minister Akbar Tanjung still hog the headlines. Golkar, a creation of the Suharto era, is still the best-organised political grouping. Although the military has been shorn of its New Order dual role in civil and military affairs, it is still largely autonomous and free of civilian oversight. Military personnel at local level continue to ride roughshod over civilian authorities and act with impunity, including attacking those who challenge their authority.

A casual review of Indonesia’s most wealthy business families reveals many familiar names from Suharto’s time.

The high cost of presidential as well as general election campaigns, plus an ineffective legal system, has resulted in the persistence of high-level corruption.  The successful devolution of political authority and decision-making to the regions has facilitated the emergence of mini-Suhartos at the local level.

 

A democratic resurgence

The difference with the Suharto years is that television, radio and print media are uninhibited in reporting such cases. The rise of social media has also had an impact on government accountability, even if it has given credence to wild rumours. The government has had to respond to populist pressures and the activism of civil society movements. And it does not have Suharto’s flexibility in dealing with Indonesia’s neighbours.

Domestically, groups which were repressed under Suharto are now resurgent. Hard-line Muslim activists have successfully pushed their campaigns. An increasingly organised workforce pushes for minimum wage policies and the freedom to organise trade unions. These developments make Indonesia less attractive for foreign investment. But they are balanced by a booming domestic market and fast-growing middle class.

 

Will new leaders emerge?

These new trends in Indonesian politics will create space for candidates in the forthcoming 2014 elections who are not tied to the Jakarta political establishment. These include the current frontrunner Joko Widodo, popularly known as “Jokowi”. He was elected governor of Jakarta in 2012, a meteoric rise for the son of a carpenter who became a successful furniture entrepreneur before being elected mayor of Solo in 2005. Other likely candidates represent continuity with authoritarian politics in the Suharto era, including former military commanders like Wiranto and Prabowo Subianto. 

This is so even though many have philosophies that are very different from those common during the Suharto era. President Yudhoyono’s brother-in-law, Pramono Edhi Wibowo, for example, is a reformist general. And Coordinating Minister for the Economy Hatta Rajasa follows a nationalistic approach (quite different from the outlook of Suharto’s “Berkeley mafia” of Western-trained technocrats.

The 2014 elections could therefore be a watershed in Indonesia’s transition if they result in the emergence of a new generation of leaders not tied to the legacy of the Suharto era.