Beijing making dangerous waves over islands dispute

There are good reasons to be concerned about China’s first Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) set up last Saturday over the East China Sea, say analysts.

One is location. The ADIZ overlaps Japan’s zone, crucially over isles claimed by Beijing as Diaoyu and by Tokyo as Senkaku.

Bilateral ties sank to a 40-year low after Japan nationalised three of the Tokyo-controlled isles last year. In recent weeks, both sides threatened the use of military action after Chinese drones flew close to the contested area.

“The problem here is that the Chinese are being provocative in a region that is obviously contested and where tensions run high,” said Singapore-based military expert Richard Bitzinger.

“Creating such an identification zone does not help reduce tensions or provide a way to reach a compromise or make the areas around the islands more stable.”

Observers believe China’s rules also appear more heavy-handed and menacing than those of zones enforced by other countries, including Japan, the US, Canada, Australia and Indonesia.

An ADIZ is an early warning concept that pre-defines an area outside a country’s territorial airspace and monitors aircraft for security purposes. Such zones, their boundaries and rules are drawn up based on domestic laws.

“China is demanding that all aircraft comply with its newly issued regulations. In contrast, the US only requires planes heading directly to the US to comply with its regulations on identification and communication,” said regional security analyst Carl Thayer.

Also, among the six Chinese rules is this warning: “China’s armed forces will adopt defensive emergency measures to respond to aircraft that do not cooperate in the identification or refuse to follow the instructions.”

Said Dr Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South Wales: “If China sends military aircraft to challenge Japanese Self-Defence Force aircraft over the Senkaku islands, this would be a high-risk venture that could provoke a clash or cause an accident.

“Such an eventuality would be nothing less than a high-altitude game of chicken.”

But Tsinghua University expert Liu Jiangyong, like many Chinese analysts, believes that China is acting within its rights, pointing out that Japan had taken over its own ADIZ from the US in 1969 and expanded it over the years.

“Japan’s action is like adding a lock to a public place as the airspace over the islands is international airspace. If Japan can do it, why can’t China do the same?” he said, dismissing as unfounded suspicions that China is using the zone to push its territorial claims.

Peking University’s North-east Asian expert Wang Dong argues that the ADIZ could even help mitigate risks of armed conflict.

“It will caution Japan and the US to be more prudent in conducting their surveillance of China’s coastline areas,” he said.

But some analysts say the ADIZ has cast doubts on Beijing’s plans to foster a coordinated foreign policy – like through a proposed national security commission – because it could scupper the currently warm ties with Seoul. The zone cuts into South Korean territory and includes the Seoul-controlled Ieodo rock lying within their overlapping exclusive economic zones. Seoul has already expressed “regret” over China’s move.

Another cause for concern is Beijing’s plans to set up similar zones elsewhere, likely in the Taiwan Strait or the contentious South China Sea, where China is locked in disputes with the Philippines and Vietnam.

Taiwan has expressed regret and vowed to protect its territorial sovereignty over the islands that it claims and calls Diaoyutai.

Said Wendell Minnick, Asia bureau chief of weekly defence paper Defense News: “During a war, US warplanes based on Okinawa and elsewhere in Japan will not be able to reach Taiwan without passing through the ADIZ.”

The zone could be on the agenda when US Vice-President Joe Biden tours China, Japan and South Korea next week, in preparation for President Barack Obama’s visit to the region next April.