The Prayuth government's strategic dilemmas

Tanasak told reporters briefly after taking up the position on Friday that Thailand needs to plan strategically in the short, medium and long term. If that is his intention, he must do it right away. From now on, there are no more excuses for thinking in a silo among the top security and diplomatic decision-makers. Previously, whenever national security issues came to the fore, Defence and Foreign Affairs officials often traded accusations over the lack of timely responses and action.

During the country’s recent history and diplomacy, the two ministries seldom worked in tandem due to different threat perceptions, work ethics and turf issues.

Now, the country suddenly has a “three-in-one” crusader — Supreme Commander, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister—the most powerful chief to occupy the Saranrom Palace. All bucks stop with him.

In his policy statement last week at the National Legislative Assembly, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha was succinct that under his watch, domestic issues would be his major task. However, two points needed to be highlighted among the eleven policy priorities — number two on national security and diplomacy; and the number seven on Thailand’s role in the Asean Community (AC).

On the security side, the current government is focusing on transnational crimes and the insurgency in three provinces of Thailand. One obvious reason has been the severity of foreign condemnation about human trafficking and transnational crimes which have increased over the years causing severe damage to Thailand’s international standing. Then, there is a prevailing fear that southern Thailand could be used as a haven for extremists with foreign links. 

Without doubt, relations with neighbouring countries with land and maritime boundaries would be on top of this government’s agenda. Prayuth’s first foreign visit to Myanmar — with the 2400-km common border they share — is a calculated one. Stable and trustful relations are pivotal to settle the status of 4 million migrant workers from Myanmar as well as the border’s myriad of security issues, drug trafficking in particular. At this juncture, Myanmar is Thailand’s most important neighbouring country.

Currently, ties between Thai-Myanmar military leaders are very good. Myanmar has been quite content with the Thai management of its migrant workers here, both legal and illegal, although displaced people along the border are still problematic. Thailand should use the upcoming visit to set a good framework to negotiate their safe return.

Up to now, Bangkok has not been involved in the ongoing negotiations on a nationwide ceasefire between Nay Pyi Taw and various ethnic groups. Other stakeholders such as China and selective representatives have been engaged for the past three years. Instead, Bangkok has been serving as a low-profile facilitator providing logistics and venues for meetings outside Myanmar. It is an open secret that several ethnic leaders are living in Thailand.

The mammoth Dawei deep-sea port project would also be on the agenda but any substantial progress would rest on the interest of foreign investors and the project’s much needed transparency. Myanmar’s main focus has always been on the Thilawa Port, which receives Japan’s full financial support.

Moving south, the Thai-Malaysia relations are important to the unity of Asean and peace in mainland Southeast Asia. Somehow, these two countries have not fully utilised their mutual potential. More than their leaders would like to admit, they are not in sync with one another although the people-to-people relations are excellent. The leaders have persistently failed to synergise their common national interests and effectively end the longstanding insurgency problems straddling the Thai-Malaysian border once and for all.

Prayuth needs to convince Prime Minister Najib Razak that a peaceful northern border that is insurgent-free would increase his and Malaysia’s creditability as a peacemaker. In a similar vein, Najib’s brainchild of the Global Movement of Moderates would prove hollow if he ignored the divide between Muslim and non-Muslim next door. Prayuth must be candid with Najib, stressing that he makes all the decisions, not the fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra.

As the incoming Asean chair, Malaysia will usher the beginning of the Asean Community. Both Thailand and Malaysia can make their common border a model for emulation by the rest of Asean. Kuala Lumpur has advocated a strong people-centred agenda for its Asean chairmanship next year. With full cooperation of military and intelligence leaders from across the border, a peaceful Thai-Malaysian border can be secured. 

The new government has sent the right signal for Thailand’s role in community-building in Asean. Among the grouping, it has been the most active in campaigning for Asean economic integration as well as the other two pillars on security/political and social/cultural matters.

Immediate action, especially in improving intra-agencies coordination and enabling legislatures, is required to place the country at the forefront of implementing the AC action plans — the current self-assessed scorecard is around 90 per cent.

One caveat is in place. Although the Prayuth government has clear objectives, they are narrow in scope and lack the strategic vision required in the fast changing environment. Thailand’s geostrategic location must be featured in to strengthen the country’s security capabilities. 

In the next 15 months, Thailand will need lots of fresh thought to map out a forward looking blueprint that responds to the Kingdom’s strategic needs and its role in the US alliance system and beyond. Thailand must also calibrate its balanced policy with China, Japan, India and Australia. Failure to do so will increase the country’s irrelevance in the world today.