Thai-US ties in 'Sleeping Beauty' mode

Before the decision was made, Seni held extensive discussions with US Secretary of State Cordell Hull to ensure that the US would recognise the Seri Thai Movement as the legitimate representative of the will of the Thai people and unblock financial flows. The rest is history. Indeed at this moment, that is all that remains of the long-standing relations between the eagle and the elephant. 

Nostalgia and memory really help in this time of Thai-US frozen ties due to the power seizure on May 22. Looking back in the 181-year old relationship, there were lots of mutually beneficial achievements and proud moments that have been cited time and again. For instance, the US signed the Treaty of Amity and Commerce in 1833 with Thailand, the first in Asia; King Rama IV offered a pair of young elephants, which was subsequently rejected, to US President James Buchanan; Their Majesties’ historic visit to the US in 1963, to name just a few. Despite such foundations, the Thai-US relations are still fragile, subjected to political whimpers of the day and leadership shenanigans on both sides. 

Meeting and talking to senior US officials handling Thai-US relations last week, it was obvious Thai-US ties were not going anywhere. Indeed, it was set to be in “The Sleeping Beauty” mode. The American officials were nice people — understandable and full of sympathy. But there was nothing much they could do. Deep down, they confessed that just to keep Thai-US relations from further sliding is already a Herculean task. 

After all, news from Bangkok has been quite unpalatable even though Thailand keeps reiterating the country has not been retreating from democracy and it just needs more time to consolidate its democratic institutions. Above all, continued campaigns against freedom of expression and assembly, not to mention the draconian lese majeste law, have further tarnished the Thai image on Capitol Hill. 

The much-heralded “clean” image and working ethos of Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha were not featured in any discussion among American movers and shakers. It was a tall order to demonstrate to American lawmakers that a non-elected government can be better than an elected one. With the midterm election drawing near and the ever-growing Ebola phobia in the US continent, anything short of “bing-bang” would not gain US attention — even the extremism of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria was no longer making top headlines. .

At this juncture, Washington’s sentiment towards Bangkok is quite succinct — without a clear deadline for a next election, it is difficult for Washington to display any eagerness to jump-start relations. During the 2006 political crisis, there was a clear deadline for an election within a year so the US had more room to conduct bilateral matters. Not this time around. Of late, the Prayut administration indicated the planned poll next October was no longer in the pipeline due to other pressing reform issues including drafting of a new constitution. Washington continues to demand an inclusive process that would lead to an early election. 

These days Indonesia, Myanmar and Vietnam are the American darlings. US Secretary of State John Kerry travelled 24 hours for 23-hours on the ground to attend President Joko Widodo’s inauguration and hail the world’s third largest democracy and its successful election. Today Myanmar is considered President Barrack Obama’s diplomatic success even amid outcries of human rights violations. Vietnam is a new strategic partner with huge potential. Even Singapore and the Philippines, the two most trusted friends, have to give way.

Fortunately, despite calls for cancellation and relocation, the Cobra Gold military exercise will continue and be held in Thailand next year. For the past three decades, Washington has understood more than any nation the region’s largest military exercise benefits the US and its military interoperability. 

Thai officials expect their US counterparts to show more gratitude for their continued willingness to use Thailand as a playground for US “command and control” and “simulated military” manoeuvres. Despite the scaling-down of the upcoming Cobra Gold exercise, Thailand remains central to the ongoing US-led humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operation in the region.

On the surface, bilateral ties have improved marginally following the senior official meeting in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly last month. Both sides agreed to overcome the so-called “grey areas” which hampered their relations. Functional cooperation in non-traditional areas would continue and with some new initiatives on non-sensitive issues. Then rumours began to circulate that the US might not send a new ambassador to Bangkok to replace the outgoing envoy Kristy Kenney any time soon. That would effectively mean keeping Thai-US relations at the charge d’affaires level as in Myanmar prior to 2011. 

Truth be told, the confirmation process for American diplomats in the Republican-controlled US Senate takes time, as long as 18 months as in the case of Albania which is still pending. Currently, about 50 diplomats await such approvals. If the designated new ambassador Glyn Davies is lucky and the senatorial mood is favourable after the midterm election, he could be in Bangkok in the next six months. 

It is pivotal that the US and Thailand understand internal political dynamics and the process affecting their bilateral ties at various transitional periods. 

Obviously, the current dire state of Thai-US relations demonstrates the lack of quality communications between their government officials at the highest levels and among diplomats in host countries.