Thai-US relations: it's complicated

If the United States and Thailand were Facebook friends, their “relationship status” right now would read, “It’s complicated.” Outgoing US Ambassador Kristie Kenney was witness to the sweetness suddenly turning sour five months ago with the Thai military’s power seizure. “Disappointed” was Washington’s initial reaction to the May 22 coup. Thailand might still be the same pretty-faced girl courted by the US for almost two centuries, but recent “unacceptable” behaviour has left Washington less eager to embrace her – at least in public. Diplomatic relations have gone into hibernation and the US has made clear there will be no awakening until martial law is lifted and an election is scheduled. Although Kenney insists that the US has not “downgraded” Thailand, the 181-year relationship that has spanned science, humanitarian efforts, health, education, military and trade is now officially on hold.

But each side realises that though the friendship is amid the rocks, it is in their mutual interest to work through the problems. The new US ambassador will not arrive until next year, but whoever steps into Kenney’s shoes faces a tricky balancing act in what is neither a healthy nor a terminally ill relationship.

A new US envoy won’t mean a fresh start for bilateral ties. But Washington’s announcement that the annual Cobra Gold military exercise will resume in Thailand next year shows willingness to compromise. The US cited the exercise’s links to humanitarian efforts, which paves the way for the new ambassador to explore other grey areas of cooperation.

Thailand has called for a “time-out” on the road to democracy, while the US insists that official dialogue will only resume when martial law is lifted and elections are restored. 

In contrast, Thailand’s friendship with China would be described as “In a permanent relationship” on Facebook. The US seems more like a long-time friend whose love is attached to conditions. Its new ambassador will have to tread carefully. He or she can learn a great deal from studying Kenney’s four years on the job. She has admitted that Thai politics is complicated, advising, “You must go out and meet everyone.” And she knows that well, having drawn both admiration and fierce criticism for representing Washington’s views during her tenure. 

The history of relations between the two countries has been shaped by their changing “personalities”. Anti-American rallies during the 1970s student uprising were led by leftist radicals, while nowadays it’s Thai conservatives who are hostile toward US influence. The new ambassador will have to negotiate a situation in which black-and-white politics has become a jumble of greys. Washington’s opponents are no longer the communists and rarely are they transgressors of human rights. Likewise, Thai cheerleaders for the US are not necessarily champions of rights. 

Thailand’s political division is an explosive issue even for those Thais fully engaged with the issues. To pick a safe path through this minefield the new US envoy will have to demonstrate a neutral and non-interventionist style while staying firm on human rights. 

Thailand and the US must find a way to maintain their mutually beneficial ties during this period of disagreement. Without an election date fixed here, the new ambassador must tread carefully if Thailand and the US are to change their 

“complicated” status back to “in a relationship”.