Voters slap down Ma's overly hasty reconciliation with China

The ruling party suffered a heavy defeat in island-wide local elections held at the end of last month.

Before the elections, the Nationalists held 15 of the seats for city and county chiefs. That number has plunged to six. Nationalist Party candidates have not been defeated in Taipei mayoral elections since 1998, but its candidate in the city’s mayoral election – the oldest son of a former Nationalist Party vice president – lost to a first-time candidate running as an independent.

The main opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) picked up seven seats and now holds 13.

Ma has taken responsibility for the election drubbing by stepping down as party chairman. There is nothing he can do to avoid spending the final 18 months of his presidential term as a lame duck.

These elections were widely regarded as a midterm referendum on the handling of the government by Ma, who was re-elected as president in 2012.

In 2010, Ma signed an economic cooperation framework agreement with China, which was a free-trade agreement for all intents and purposes. Even after beginning his second term in office, Ma has pushed ahead with efforts to bring the economies of Taiwan and China closer together.

Business circles have, for the most part, welcomed the thaw in ties between Taipei and Beijing. However, there has been rising discontent among the public that these closer ties have “widened disparities” in society. This sentiment has been fuelled by factors including the surge in housing prices due to the influx of money from China. In March 2014, students occupied Taiwan’s parliament in protest against a deal with China that significantly eased regulations governing investment in each other’s services markets.

 

DPP must be realistic

China is calling for unification with Taiwan through a “one country, two systems” model like the one for Hong Kong. The sense of alarm felt by many Taiwan residents that they will be swallowed up by China is not unlike the feelings of students in Hong Kong who have been holding protests and demanding greater democracy in elections there.

Now, the focus will shift to Taiwan’s 2016 presidential election. For the Nationalist Party to recover its strength, it will be essential to amend its policy of reconciliation with China, which went too far, too fast.

There is no doubt the DPP, which has strong aspirations for Taiwan’s independence, has the wind in its sails. However, the overwhelming majority of citizens prefer to maintain the current situation of China-Taiwan ties “that is neither unification nor independence.” It is also true that Taiwan has no option but to rely on China, to some extent, for its economic growth.

A major issue now for the DPP is whether it can craft realistic policies for dealing with China.

The triumph of an independent candidate in the Taipei mayoral election can be considered an indication of dissatisfaction with the two main political parties. The Nationalist Party and the DPP have both reached a crossroads.

Despite the results of these elections, China’s drive for reunification with Taiwan, where it has established a foothold through economics, will not change. Bringing Taiwan under its wing is very significant for expanding China’s own economic sphere and resisting the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement being spearheaded by Japan and the United States.

Movements in China-Taiwan relations can have an impact on the stability of the whole of East Asia, including Japan. This situation demands close attention.