Malaysian politics are in a dangerous slide

The real political storm has yet to hit Malaysia, where dark clouds have been gathering for some time. The question most asked is not whether it will happen, but how much damage will ensue when it does. Embattled Prime Minister Najib Razak has scraped through thus far not because he’s been cleared of corruption charges. Rather, according to a recent analysis by the news website The Interpreter, it’s because he has effectively utilised coercion and the vast resources of important national institutions and has the support of Western governments seeking to shield their vested interests against disruption.

A year ago the international media were referring to Najib as the “dead man walking” after he admitted to having a massive amount of money in his personal bank account. It was a rare case of corruption charges being backed by an unmistakable “receipt”. The biggest street protests in memory erupted as citizens vented fury against the premier and his regime. Powerful allies including former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad became his enemies.

Najib’s case has echoes in Thailand’s political crisis, but there are key differences as well. Their shared characteristics include elected leaders facing mass protests backed by prominent national figures, an outcry over corruption, Western diplomats lurking in the wings – and yellow adopted as the colour of the anti-government movement.

But, unlike Thailand, Malaysia has the spectre of Najib invoking nationalism as well as religion. His critics fret that he could build up enough religious fervour to carry him through the storm. In a country where patriotism and Islam are at times inseparable, Najib, warns The Interpreter, has gone from being a “progressive Muslim” leader advocating racial harmony and touting a new economic model to an autocrat playing the tried and trusted race-and-religion card to shore up his political position. Anyone who thought Malaysia had emerged from its dangerous era of social tension is now alarmed to see Najib attempting to revive it.

Can the country halt the slide towards political turbulence? Najib’s rivals have had a boost from recent developments: massive, unapproved payments from a state fund to an offshore account have been confirmed. Fresh offensives from the anti-government camp are imminent. The ruling party, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), will keep on half-heartedly defending the premier, but with the bank account scandal refusing to ebb, its stubborn allegiance will only aid the opposition.

UMNO’s entrenched control of Malaysian politics is not going to collapse overnight, but there were signs of public discontent even before the financial bombshell went off. The ruling party’s image as the guardian of Islamic values could suffer severe damage, given the enormous amount of money in Najib’s bank account and new reports saying the suspicious transfers were actually bigger than originally revealed.

It will be interesting to see how the Western powers react. UMNO has a poor record in its handling of perceived threats and enemies. And Najib, knowing his and his family’s future will be bleak if he’s evicted from power, could become far less tolerant of the growing dissent. If he were to voluntarily resign, many of the current problems would be resolved and crises pre-empted, but for now he is behaving as though he has everything to lose rather than showing any willingness to lose.

If Najib decides to bow out, it will be in stark contrast to what happened in Thailand. The gathering storm will disperse. If he chooses to fight on, being steadily pushed towards the brink by his opponents, the situation in Malaysia might well become similar again to Thailand’s. The dark clouds could grow far darker.