After the coup bid, Turkey faces a precarious future

Turkey’s future is in limbo. The failed coup a week ago today rendered perhaps-unforeseen consequences, rocking not just domestic politics but also Turkey’s role in global security and the regional refugee crisis. On the surface, besieged President Teyip Recap Erdogan emerged from the turmoil triumphantly, but the political landscape has changed dramatically and is still in flux. The coup attempt essentially undermined his leadership and his ability to deal with the multitude of issues facing his administration.

His alarming reaction to the coup has entailed the arrest of more than 7,000 people, including military officers, the general attorney and government officials of lower rank. His call for the death penalty and other severe punishment to be imposed on those involved in the attempted putsch has shocked Turkey’s allies in Nato and the European Union. Erdogan’s brutal and uncompromising stand could damage his chances of tacking serious issues facing his country and the Middle East, especially terrorism and the refugee dilemma.

The president’s demand that the influential Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen, his trusted adviser until their falling-out in 2013, be extradited from his self-exile in the United States has raised tensions in US-Turkish relations. This now becomes a factor that might affect combined operations against the militant Islamic State. Given that this is an election year in the US, there is no hope that serious diplomatic negotiations can take place, especially on such a sensitive matter such as the fate of Gulen, whom Erdogan insists engineered last week’s coup attempt.

Erdogan has never been a committed supporter of democracy. He has treated his critics mercilessly. What happens next might be even worse. The coup has delivered to him an opportunity to eradicate all enemies, both real and imagined. If in his future actions he displays the full force of authoritarian vindictiveness, it would certainly polarise Turkish society even further. If his condemnation of the military continues unabated, it will effectively weaken the overall role of the military, and Turkey could face even direr challenges from insurgent groups. The president needs to moderate his actions with an eye to reconciling with his foes, as he has done in the past with various opposition groups.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has its own role to contemplate in all of this. Over the past two years Turkey has sent strong messages to Asean that it wants to become a dialogue partner. It already has strong ties with predominantly Muslim Indonesia and Malaysia. Any consideration of this proposal will now be put on hold until stability is restored in Turkey, but there is an added caveat. 

Erdogan’s feud with Fethullah Gulen and the Gulen Movement he founded could scupper Turkey’s chances of making commercial and economic inroads into Southeast Asia because the movement, a non-governmental organisation, is greatly admired here. After the 2004 tsunami it provided significant humanitarian aid and other assistance in Thailand and Indonesia. Gulen has always insisted his movement is civic in nature, not political, and yet he now stands accused by Erdogan of not only treason but also terrorism.

The Gulen Movement remains active in Aceh and other parts of the Indonesian archipelago, and in Thailand it has established religious schools, but the organisation and other such groups would have to come under closer scrutiny if they lose the support of Turkish government.

It thus becomes imperative that Thailand and neighbouring countries collaborate closely in weighing Erdogan’s very serious post-coup allegations against the movement and its founder. What they decide – in what is sure to be a drawn-out process – will have a direct impact on the region.