Same strategy in South will yield same results

Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwan was visibly annoyed by the huge car bomb in Pattani in spite of the fact that such attack was not the first of its kind and probably won’t be the last. 

The attack irritated him greatly because he, like other security planners, has yet to come to terms with the unprecedented attacks in the provinces in the Upper South. 

The fact that there isn’t much to show for in terms of progress for the attacks in the Upper South is already making the government look bad. And then, a massive twin bomb, each weighing about 80 kilograms, went off in the heart of an entertainment complex where local officials, youths and Army conscripts mingle with ladies of the night at a discotheque and karaoke bars, it was like pouring salt on an open wound. 

Indeed, militant separatists in the Deep South have a tendency to kick Thai security agencies when they are down. The car bomb in Pattani was probably nothing personal. But when it appeared that Thailand’s political conflict had crossed a new threshold with the attacks on tourist hotspots in the Upper South, the government has yet to come up with a convincing answer. The attack in Pattani was nothing less than a humiliating setback for the security apparatus. 

Prawit did try to stick with the current narrative – that the attacks in Pattani and the bombing spree in the seven provinces furthern north were not related. If he had, it would have been like admitting to policy failure. 

After all, the military has consistently credited themselves for not allowing the violence to spread north beyond the Malay-speaking provinces. It never occurred to the Thai officials that the reason why the violence was largely confined to the far South was because the restraints that the insurgents put on themselves. 

And as many have pointed out, it would not be too unrealistic to think that the attacks in the seven provinces in the Upper South could have been done by the Patani Malay separatists. 

In spite of sticking to the same official line, Prawit lost his cool and lashed out at separatist movements, including the ones that want to sit down with his representatives to talk peace. He said the government would not make any deal with the separatist groups as long as violence persists in the region. 

No one is certain if Prawit was speaking off the cuff or whether his statement was a calculated one. If the latter is to be believed, then his statement could very well be a gesture to the militants behind the recent car bomb attack in Pattani, as well as violent incidents over the past 15 years, that Bangkok is willing to make concessions should the insurgents live up to their end of the bargain. And if he thinks that by pressuring the very people who are willing to talk to him – the MARA Patani – he can get violent attacks down to an acceptable level, then he should know that he is barking up the wrong tree. Ask any official on the ground who has dealt with separatist combatants – captured or at large – and they will tell you the group behind the violence, the Barisan Revolusi Nasional, are not interested in talks, at least not at this juncture.  

Prawit needs to get a better understanding of which group is capable of what and determine how the state agencies should engage them. MARA Patani is made up of longstanding separatists who may have something to contribute to peace in the region. Muslim villagers and local religious and community leaders can help. But governments in Bangkok have never given these people the respect they deserve. If anything, the Malays of Patani are reminded that they are a defeated people with no choice but to learn to live with that reality. But the insurgents beg to differ.