Duterte ‘wild card’ in US’ changing Asian alliances

During his visit to Beijing last week, he made it clear that in exchange for generous assistance, huge investment and flexible loans from China for infrastructure developments – as well as some respect and pleasantries – he would adjust the Philippines’ overall foreign policy towards the US. 
After his return to Manila, he quickly clarified his much-reported threat to separate from the US, saying he did not mean it. For the time being, that much is clear. However, there could be some more unexpected twists and turns in the near future. What he is planning to say when he visits Japan this week will also matter.
Suffice to say, this is the first time in Asia that a leader of an American ally has taken such a dramatic step as disowning Washington in front of its friend’s adversary without any qualms, imaginary or real. Chinese President Xi Jinping must have been caught by surprise by such a direct declaration. In the long run, this attitude could be problematic as it could be contagious. After all, prior to Duterte being sworn in as president in June, the Philippines was entirely on America’s side.
The Philippines senses a great opportunity to shift the strategic environment in this region, especially in the South China Sea, to its benefit. Duterte knows he can reduce tensions in the maritime zone and manage it in ways benefiting his country. Manila’s latest assessment was quite clear – make use of the UN’s Permanent Court of Arbitration (PAC) ruling on the South China Sea this year that favoured the Philippines over China’s sweeping territorial claim to the waterway, and do so without name-shaming China.
It is a win-win tactic, much to the chagrin of Washington, which has internationalised the issue for the past six years, leading to the Philippines’ arbitration suit. In Beijing, Duterte chose not to mention the verdict because he wanted to promote ties with China. But he didn’t have to, as both sides obviously know what happened. 
In 2013, the Philippines, the current Asean chair, filed the arbitration suit against China without consultation and support from Asean. But the PAC outcome has long-term ramifications. 
For now, it has resulted in improved relations between China and the Philippines and led them to the negotiations table and dialogue. Next, the process will involve other conflicting countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan entering into dialogue to work out outstanding differences among themselves.
Duterte’s strong US bashing will impact the US’s current rebalancing policy in Asia because it could drive a wedge between the Asia-based alliance system that Washington put in place after the end of World War II. It is well known that Asean is currently contemplating establishing a new regional security architecture. Without a solid alliance system, the future of collective security could result in different players competing with the US. China and Russia argued that there was no need for such an alliance system, or “indivisible security” as they defined it, after the Cold War.
Both China and Russia have proposed regional security frameworks to Asean for consideration. Beijing has already urged Asean members to sign the Treaty of Good Neighbourliness and Cooperation. But the grouping has yet to respond. After more than three decades, Moscow still continues to push its comprehensive security proposal in various forms and names. The latest one is the Framework Principle of Strengthening Security and Developing Cooperation in the Asia and Pacific Region. Asean has conducted two workshops to consider the Russian idea. 
Moscow and Beijing have a similar objective – weaken the alliance system, which they consider to be against them. If Duterte has his way and weakens the security cooperation with the US, it would mean that the US pivot to Asia is losing steam. 
The US focusing on it strong alliance with Japan, South Korea and Australia is not enough. Thailand, another traditional US ally, has been bruised by Washington’s political insensitivity and biases towards it. Now the country is in mourning after the death of His Majesty the King. The US-Thai alliance is in limbo although both countries are still in denial about this fact. The US alliance system could be upended completely if Donald Trump is elected US president. The Republican candidate tends to look at US strategic interests in terms of job creation at home and business transactions, which is dangerous thinking as it ignores the comprehensive nature of US relations with foreign powers.
The region’s biggest annual joint military exercise, Cobra Gold, is no longer the premium avenue for the Thai military to learn from or cherish. Without a common enemy and ongoing political uncertainty, the US tends to bypass Thailand and opt for new brighter spots – Vietnam and Myanmar. No wonder, Duterte’s American negativism has strongly resonated among the top Thai military leaders, who do not want to say so outright.
The Philippines has become a wild card in the region’s strategic game. It remains to be seen how Duterte’s diplomatic leadership will play out in the long run. Already, the short-term uproar is clear for all to see.