Duterte stirs up crucible of confusion 

Not a day seems to pass without Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte taking fresh potshots at long-time ally the United States. After announcing a “separation” from the US during his fence-mending trip to Beijing last week, Duterte said yesterday that the US could “forget” about the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) while he was in power, once again raising questions over the future of a historically ironclad alliance.
Duterte’s predecessor Benigno Aquino had sought to upgrade the 1951 “mutual” defence treaty, which promised US protection for the Philippines. The two governments negotiated the EDCA two years ago, to give the US base access and facilitate joint training missions.
The enhanced defence cooperation was conceived after China seized control of Scarborough Shoal and surrounding waters in the South China Sea in 2012. 
The administration of US President Barack Obama must be scratching its head over Duterte’s repeated fulminations. They make a fiasco of Obama’s much-vaunted “Pivot to Asia” policy, ostensibly aimed at containing a rising China.
While Washington has been guarded in its response to Duterte’s regular outbursts, it is probably a measure of US frustration that its senior diplomat in Asia, Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel, warned: “The succession of controversial statements, comments and a real climate of uncertainty about the Philippines’ intentions have created consternation in a number of countries. Not only in mine and not only among governments, but also growing concern in other communities, in the expat Filipino community, in corporate boardrooms as well. This is not a positive trend.”
As a democratically elected leader, Duterte has a legitimate mandate to make national policy. But his vision to decouple from the US and embrace China points to an ideological shift that lacks depth, substance or public endorsement. “America has lost ... I’ve realigned myself in your ideological flow,” Duterte said in Beijing. It was music to the ears of Chinese leaders, but while Beijing literally rolled out the red carpet for Duterte, it remained guarded in its assessment of his public dumping of the US. It is hard to imagine that one leader can destroy a 65-year alliance in his first year in power. 
Undoubtedly, it was an achievement for the Philippine president to heal relations with China that were badly damaged under Aquino. During his trip, Beijing and Manila decided to settle their territorial dispute in the South China Sea through direct talks, despite an international arbitration panel having ruled in favour of the Philippines. But the path of rapprochement Duterte has chosen seems at odds with the sentiments of the people. An opinion poll conducted late in September showed that 55 per cent of Filipinos had “little trust” in China, against 11 per cent who had doubts about the United States. Some 76 per cent of the respondents had “much trust” in the United States, compared with 22 per cent who felt the same about China.
What has been causing greater complications in US-Philippine ties is Duterte’s relentless war on drugs. More than 3,700 drug suspects have been killed by police and vigilantes since Duterte’s election, prompting repeated questions over rights abuses from US authorities. This is an issue that will bedevil relations as long as Duterte stays in power.
The denunciations of the US by Duterte also point to something more than a recalibration of foreign policy. Beyond the invective-laced rhetoric, his remarks in Beijing seem to point to a pained victim, flailing wildly: “If there is one thing that America has failed miserably, it is in the province of the human dignity”; “Duterte of the Philippines is veering towards China because China has the character of an Oriental. It does not go around insulting people”; and, the US should not treat the Philippines “like a dog with a leash”. 
Has the United States been fair to its allies? There appears to be a need for some introspection in Washington.
In its last months in office, it’s unlikely the Obama administration will have the time, clout or resources to make much headway in repairing this rift. The task facing the next US president is to initiate a more nuanced approach that can salvage an alliance that has vital importance in the geo-strategic context of the region. Until then, the “uncertainty” will continue.