Taiwan making big mistake by relying on US, Japan for defence

TUESDAY, JANUARY 03, 2017
Taiwan making big mistake by relying on US, Japan for defence

On it’s inaugural blue-ocean drill, China’s only aircraft carrier combat group passed through the seas between Okinawa and Miyako on Christmas Day before heading for the Western Pacific and then the South China Sea. 

Military experts in Taiwan have dismissed this Chinese first, arguing that since the carrier group did not intrude on Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ), it did not matter. They are wrong: Like the blind men and the elephant, they have reached an incorrect conclusion about the nature of the creature Taiwan faces.
The fact is that the main speciality of a carrier combat group is its ability to launch continuous mobile attacks. It can sail 500 to 600 nautical miles a day, making it next to impossible to locate and counterattack. That means the Taiwan experts are advocating a defence limited to the ADIZ, which is nothing but a handcuffed battle tactic. Needless to say, it is a mistaken military strategy.
Beijing’s purpose in sending the Liaoning combat group to patrol around Taiwan is to send a warning to President Tsai Ing-wen’s new Democratic Progressive Party government and to President-elect Donald Trump, who proclaimed the US would not be bound by the “one China” policy his predecessors have abided by since 1979. Beijing foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a press conference that the Liaoning was entitled to free passage in open seas according to international law. Washington kept an official silence.
On the other hand, the Chinese carrier group has effective total control over 250 nautical miles of airspace, making it all but impossible for opposing warplanes to launch missile counter-strikes, whereas the Liaoning can release its fighter-bombers to attack enemy defences on land or warships in the sea 350 to 500 nautical miles away. It is crystal clear that the carrier can attack Taiwan’s land-based missile bases from beyond their missile range to render its military deployment null and void.
President Tsai knows full well Taiwan may be attacked from the Chinese mainland and the Western Pacific at the same time, of course. That is why she ordered her military to oversee the Liaoning combat group’s patrol, which may become routine as tensions continue to mount across the Taiwan Strait. But growing Chinese military pressure on Taiwan will make it necessary for her government to re-examine its military strategy to meet the requirement of change in cross-strait strategic alliance. 
Taiwan’s top ally, the United States, chose not to oppose the Liaoning patrol. Instead, Uncle Sam let Japan take his place to respond. Does this mean that Japan would help defend Taiwan instead of the United States even at the risk of going to war, if and when the People’s Republic attacks from across the strait? Not in the least. Neither Washington nor Tokyo would come to Taiwan’s rescue unless it was in their own interest to do so. In other words, Taipei should not listen to the tongue-wagging of military commentators who believe the United States and Japan would intervene. In fact, the Tsai regime commits a gross miscalculation by further cosying up to the two world powers, because Taiwan will not just lose strategic gains but also suffer irreparable damage through rejecting the “1992 Consensus” and encouraging a sentiment of independence as well. It is a destructive strategic misstep.
The Liaoning’s incursion has exposed Taiwan’s inability to grapple with Beijing’s rising sea power.