Vietnam tourism set to exceed 22 million visitors in 2025

Nikkei Asia reports that Vietnam is expected to welcome over 22 million tourists this year, surpassing pre-COVID-19 levels. A key driver behind this growth is the significant increase in visitors from China.

The Vietnamese government has set an ambitious target of 25 million tourists for 2025, while BMI (Fitch Solutions) forecasts 22 million. BMI believes that by 2028, Vietnam’s tourism numbers will surpass the pre-COVID record of 18 million set in 2019, indicating nearly full recovery of the country's tourism sector.

Political Stability in Vietnam Attracts Tourists Amid Regional Challenges

One of the main reasons tourists are choosing Vietnam is its political stability, with the country being governed by a single political party. This contrasts with neighbouring countries in the region, such as Thailand and Cambodia, which are still grappling with prolonged border disputes. Indonesia also continues to face the aftereffects of protests, despite more than two months having passed.

In addition, the Vietnamese government has actively supported the tourism sector by extending visa-free access for citizens from 12 countries. Major attractions for tourists include sampling local cuisine, exploring war history, visiting beautiful islands, and discovering some of the largest caves in the world.

China Leads in Tourism to Vietnam

Brandon Msimanga, Deputy Director at BMI, told Nikkei Asia that Vietnam has now become the number one destination for mainland Chinese tourists, surpassing Thailand. This shift can be attributed to two main factors:

1. Chinese tourists are increasingly concerned about safety in Thailand.
2. Chinese consumers are more cautious with their spending, and Vietnam’s geographic proximity offers lower travel costs.

Data from the General Statistics Office reveals that Vietnam received 17 million visitors by October, with 4 million coming from China. The shift from Thailand to Vietnam can partly be attributed to the January 2025 kidnapping of a Chinese actor in Thailand, which undermined confidence and led tourists to change their travel plans to Vietnam.

Vietnam's Weakening Dong Boosts Tourism

Vietnam has gained a competitive advantage in tourism due to its strategy of allowing the dong to depreciate, making travel to the country more affordable and stimulating tourism.

In contrast, Thailand is facing challenges due to the strengthening of the Thai baht, which negatively impacts various sectors, including investment attraction, exports, and international tourist arrivals.

Tourist Spending Drives Strong Retail Growth

The influx of international tourists is expected to drive and stimulate Vietnam’s retail sector. BMI estimates that from August to the present, the retail industry has grown by 6.7% compared to the previous year. This growth is primarily driven by tourism, with tourism-related revenues increasing by 48.4% in the first eight months of the year.

An analysis of retail sales data since 2019 found that Vietnam’s retail sales have recovered strongly, nearly reaching pre-pandemic levels, as if the pandemic had never occurred. However, inflation rates still reflect some lingering impacts.

Big Corporations Seize Opportunities Amid Vietnam's Tourism Boom

Films and music videos, such as "A Tourist’s Guide to Love" from Netflix and "Love in Vietnam" from Bollywood, along with viral YouTube videos, have helped promote Vietnamese culture and landscapes, sparking interest and fascination among international tourists.

Large domestic companies are seizing these business opportunities, such as Saigon Tourist and Vinpearl, a subsidiary of Vingroup, which are looking to profit from this growing trend. Recently, Sun Group, a major real estate company, launched its own airline focused on flights to Phu Quoc Island.

Vietnam's Global Appeal Grows with Major Events

This year, Vietnam has gained significant international attention due to several key events:

• The 50th anniversary of the end of the Vietnam War.
• The 80th anniversary celebration of Vietnam’s independence declaration.
• Trade agreements with President Donald Trump, although some details of the agreements remain unclear. One major project in the pipeline is a golf course development near Hanoi.

However, Vietnam's tourism industry still faces challenges, particularly from natural disasters. In July, a tourist boat sank in the UNESCO World Heritage site of Ha Long Bay due to a typhoon, resulting in at least 38 fatalities.

Thanapol Chiwaratnaporn, President of the Thai Business Tourism Association (ATTA), stated that the forecast for 2025 indicates that Thailand will receive 32 million international tourists, lower than the government's target of 34 million and below the 2024 record of 35.54 million.