People’s Party sets terms for 'interim PM' in exchange for constitutional reform

The Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s new cabinet has officially taken the oath of office and begun their duties.

Paetongtarn, now serving as the Minister of Culture, attended the Cabinet meeting again, although she did not sit at the "head of the table" due to a temporary suspension ordered by the Constitutional Court following a petition related to an audio clip of her conversation with Cambodia's former Prime Minister, Hun Sen.

Despite this, the "Pheu Thai-led government" continues to drive forward with governance, with Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Phumtham Wechayachai taking on the role of acting Prime Minister. 

Phumtham is pushing ahead with government operations, ensuring the continuation of policies with no disruption, even amidst political manoeuvres from conservative factions, the Orange Camp ( led by the People's Party) and Blue Camp ( led by Bhumjaithai Party).

An interesting development is the resurgence of the People’s Party, previously outside the equation for government formation, but now becoming a "key player" in breaking the political deadlock in Thailand.

People’s Party’s Stance on Upcoming Election and Political Deadlock

On July 2, the People’s Party held a meeting with its MPs to discuss various political scenarios. After several rounds of discussion, the party concluded the following:

• Election Readiness: The party is prepared to contest the next election if the parliament is dissolved soon. The party is rallying MPs to stand up against the “big political families” who are perceived as trying to dominate the political scene.
• Call for Immediate Dissolution: The Party firmly stands by the call for an immediate dissolution of parliament, stating that Paetongtarn and the current government have lost their political legitimacy. This position is shared not only by the Party but also by other factions within the "Orange Camp," including the Progressive Movement, allied teams, and supporters from the “Orange Army.”
• Role in Choosing a New Prime Minister: If the parliament is not dissolved, the Party is ready to play a crucial role in the vote for the new Prime Minister. 

Currently, four candidates remain for the position of Prime Minister as listed by the political parties with the Election Commission:

• Pheu Thai Party: Chaikasem Nitisiri
• United Thai Nation Party: Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha and Pirapan Salirathavibhaga
• Democrat Party: Jurin Laksanawisit
• Bhumjaithai Party: Anutin Charnvirakul

As for Gen Prawit Wongsuwan, leader of the Palang Pracharat Party, the party has only 19 MPs, which is less than 5% of the total seats in the House. This makes it impossible for the party to submit a candidate for Prime Minister unless they receive support from other parties.

People’s Party Sets Conditions for New Prime Minister Vote and Constitutional Reform

The People’s Party has laid out key conditions for supporting a new Prime Minister. The party insists that immediate action be taken to address the country’s political situation, which includes moving forward with constitutional amendments. Specifically, the party demands the establishment of a fully elected Constitutional Drafting Assembly (CDA) to create a new constitution. Once this process is complete, the parliament must be dissolved to return power to the people, which is expected to take no longer than six months.

The party has also made it clear that it will not join the Cabinet or any government, even with a single representative. If the government fails to meet these conditions or “backs out,” the party is ready to call for a no-confidence debate and vote to dismiss the government, followed by a vote for a new Prime Minister.

At the meeting held on July 2, scenarios were discussed concerning the vote for a new Prime Minister. If the acting Prime Minister refuses to dissolve parliament and Paetongtarn is removed by the Constitutional Court, it would create a “political vacuum,” especially as the ruling coalition is divided and precariously balanced. This could open the door for “extra-systemic power” to interfere in the political process.

Two Potential Scenarios for the New Prime Minister Vote:

• Pheu Thai Party Proposal: If Pheu Thai proposes Chaikasem Nitisiri as their final candidate for Prime Minister, the People’s Party is prepared to support the vote, but only under the conditions outlined above. However, Pheu Thai is currently facing a political deadlock due to a lack of public trust following the “audio clip” incident, making it unclear whether they can secure enough support from the remaining coalition parties.
• Bhumjaithai Party Proposal: As a “new opposition party,” Bhumjaithai may propose Anutin Charnvirakul as Prime Minister. The People’s Party is also prepared to vote for this option, while still not joining the government, provided that the conditions mentioned earlier are met.

It is being speculated that initial talks have already taken place between the “orange spiritual leader” and the “blue master” in an effort to resolve the current political deadlock. 

This aligns with statements made by Natthaphong Ruangpanyawut, the head of the People’s Party, who revealed that discussions with Anutin have been ongoing to find a solution for the country’s political crisis.

Similarly, Chutipong Phiphoppinyo, a Member of Parliament for Rayong and the People’s Party’s “Eastern Region Commander,” shared insights into the discussions during a meeting with the party’s MPs. 

He emphasised that in these extraordinary circumstances, the priority is to send someone according to the remaining legal provisions to resolve the crisis, amend the constitution, and dissolve the parliament. There is no other agenda. 

The pressing question is: how can we trust that the Prime Minister selected to dissolve the parliament will actually do so, considering the history of broken promises after the 2023 election?

The answer lies in the fact that the People’s Party has no obligations to join the government. The party’s position remains independent of any coalition, and they are not seeking Cabinet positions. Even one seat is off the table. Should the appointed interim Prime Minister fail to dissolve parliament as promised, the People’s Party is prepared to immediately vote to dismiss the government. Without the Party’s vote, the government would likely fall, becoming a minority government.

Chutipong further stated, “Therefore, if we are to support a Prime Minister, the candidate must be willing to meet these conditions. Regardless of the party, the candidate must agree to these terms. Based on the current list of potential candidates, it seems the only ones who might be willing to listen to these terms are Chaikasem or Anutin in the event of a new government formation.”

However, the plan put forward by the “Orange Camp” seems to have received little support from their political “close allies and big friends,” including the core members and followers of the “Orange movement.” 

They view the continued efforts to “align” with the “Blue Camp” as potentially a form of “betraying” the people’s trust.

The next point to watch is whether the People’s Party will indeed vote for Anutin as Prime Minister, and whether the “Blue Camp” will truly adhere to the conditions laid out by the “Orange Party.” 

This is especially concerning given the various pressing factors at play right now, such as the Khao Kradong land case, which was once a non-issue when Bhumjaithai held the Ministry of the Interior. However, now that it is under the control of the “Red Camp” (Pheu Thai Party), there are concerns about potential interference. Additionally, the Senate election collusion is still under investigation by the Election Commission.

This does not even take into account the issue of funding. If parliament is dissolved now, the “Blue Camp” is ready for elections, but if the delay continues, there’s uncertainty about whether they will still have the financial resources to compete. 

Therefore, if elections are not imminent, the best strategy for them may be to hold on to power in the interim.

If the “Blue Camp” does manage to regain power, their plan would likely be to “consolidate power” and re-establish their influence within the political network. As political insiders know well, this faction is tricky, having even sidelined the “former big boss” in the past.

Even though the People’s Party has set conditions and threatened to vote against the Prime Minister and the government, the “Blue Camp” is no stranger to these tactics. It is expected that they have already prepared a strategy to counter the “Orange Camp’s” moves, biding their time and playing along with the current game, at least for now.

In the end, whether the “Orange Camp” will be used as a political tool once again, or if they’ll be deceived into being sidelined, remains to be seen.