Strategic showdown: blue, orange and red camps battle for public support

The National Institute of Development Administration (Nida) released its latest survey on November 2, titled “Political Trends in the Northeast.” Conducted between October 27–30, 2025, the poll sampled 2,000 respondents aged 18 and above from all provinces across the Northeast, covering diverse levels of education, occupation, and income.

The most striking finding was Northeastern voters’ response to the question of whom they would support as prime minister if an election were held today.

The results show:

• 1st place: No suitable candidate yet – 32.40%
• 2nd place: Anutin Charnvirakul, Prime Minister and Interior Minister, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party – 19.70%
• 3rd place: Natthaphong Ruangpanyawut, leader of the People’s Party and Opposition leader in the House of Representatives – 18.55%
• 4th place: Chaikasem Nitisiri, member of the Pheu Thai Party – 8.80%
• 5th place: Abhisit Vejjajiva, leader of the Democrat Party – 6.10%

When asked which political party they would currently support, the top five were:

• 1st: People’s Party – 26.05%
• 2nd: No suitable party yet – 24.65%
• 3rd: Pheu Thai Party – 16.85%
• 4th: Bhumjaithai Party – 15.75%
• 5th: Democrat Party – 5.55%

The poll results reflect an increasingly competitive political landscape, with major parties ramping up efforts to win over voters, a clear sign that Thailand is edging closer to election mode.

During a visit to Trang province on November 2, Anutin reinforced this momentum while launching the “Big House Lohsathapornpipit” political base and introducing four prospective MP candidates who recently joined Bhumjaithai.

Addressing supporters, Anutin declared, “The government will dissolve the House on January 31, 2026, to return power to the people. All parties should prepare for the upcoming general election next year.”

The announcement has fuelled speculation that Anutin’s “blue camp” is accelerating its political strategy, dispelling earlier assumptions that the prime minister might extend the life of his “caretaker government” by delaying the dissolution. As of now, the signal from the premier himself suggests that the countdown to the next election has truly begun.

Reading Anutin’s game plan: Bhumjaithai moves fast, aims to finish early

It must be remembered that the power to dissolve Parliament rests solely with the prime minister.

Against the current political backdrop, it is increasingly clear that the Bhumjaithai Party is taking an aggressive approach to secure an advantage while holding the reins of the executive branch. At least five clear signals point to the party’s early manoeuvring ahead of the next general election.

Expanding political strongholds

Bhumjaithai has been launching local campaign bases across the country, signalling its readiness for the upcoming polls. The spotlight is on the Northeast, a critical electoral battleground. In the previous election, Pheu Thai dominated with 73 seats, followed by Bhumjaithai with 35, Palang Pracharath and Move Forward with seven each, Thai Sang Thai with five, Thai Ruamphalang with two, Democrats with two, and Chartthaipattana with one.

Moreover, Bhumjaithai recently captured a seat from Pheu Thai in the Si Sa Ket Constituency 5 by-election, underscoring its growing influence in the region. If the party aims to secure a “majority government”, it must continue to strengthen its foothold in this strategic area.

Populist policies and nationalist appeal

The party has rolled out a string of populist policies, the most prominent being the “Let’s Go Halves Plus” stimulus launched on October 20, alongside other vote-boosting schemes expected to follow.

It has also tapped into nationalist sentiment, particularly in provinces along the Thai–Cambodian border — Surin, Buri Ram, Si Sa Ket, and Ubon Ratchathani — which remain key Bhumjaithai strongholds.

Institutional preparation for elections

The party’s groundwork extends beyond policy. On October 20, the Senate approved Anan Suwannarat and Narong Rakroi as new members of the Election Commission, both reportedly close to the party’s blue network.

Likewise, the Ministry of Interior’s major reshuffle on October 14 strategically placed senior officials believed to be aligned with the Bhumjaithai campviewed by many as part of a coordinated pre-election structure.

Parliamentary battle looming

Both the opposition and rival factions are gearing up for a political showdown in Parliament, with a no-confidence debate expected to take place soon after the new session opens on December 12.

Anutin’s endgame: four more years

Analysts note that Prime Minister Anutin does not appear content with merely leading a four-month caretaker government. His ultimate goal seems to be securing a four-year full-term administration.

By moving swiftly,“closing early, finishing early”, Bhumjaithai aims to seize the initiative, consolidate power, and enter the next election from a position of strength. For Anutin, timing may well be the key to staying ahead in Thailand’s fast-approaching electoral race.

People’s Party eyes 250 seats as ‘With us, no grey,’ campaign heats up

On the opposition side, the People’s Party continues to ride a wave of popularity, as reflected in the recent Nida Poll, which placed it as the top political choice among Northeastern voters.

However, the same survey revealed a close race between party leader Natthaphong Ruangpanyawut and Prime Minister Anutin, with the two separated by just one percentage point, a reminder that the People’s Party cannot afford complacency.

Reclaiming the lead for Natthaphong

This narrow gap has become a pressing challenge for the orange camp, which now aims to leverage the party’s overall popularity to push Natthaphong back into the lead. The strategy is designed to ensure that the party’s brand power translates directly into support for its leader.

Learning from the last election

One key lesson from the previous election was the party’s decision to nominate only Pita Limjaroenrat as its sole prime ministerial candidate, a move that backfired when shifting political dynamics left the party unable to nominate anyone else once Pita’s candidacy stalled.

That outcome forced the People’s Party into an awkward position: joining hands with the Bhumjaithai Party to vote for Anutin as prime minister under a non-coalition arrangement. Critics derisively labelled them the “supporting opposition” rather than a true opposition force.

Determined not to repeat that mistake, the party is reportedly preparing three prime ministerial candidates for the next election to ensure greater flexibility and avoid being boxed into a corner again.

Targeting ‘grey ministers’ to sharpen contrast

Currently, the People’s Party is driving a bold campaign under the slogan  ‘With us, no grey,’, aimed squarely at “grey ministers” within Anutin’s government, those accused of operating in murky or controversial areas of governance.

The dual objective is clear: to distance itself from any image of being a passive opposition and to reignite public enthusiasm by positioning itself as a clean, uncompromising reformist force.

With an ambitious target of 250 parliamentary seats, the People’s Party is sharpening its message and consolidating its base, setting the stage for what could become one of Thailand’s fiercest electoral battles yet.

Pheu Thai’s next chapter: can it move forward without the Shinawatras? 

The Pheu Thai Party has entered a major transition following its extraordinary general meeting on October 31, which elected Julapan Amornvivat, MP for Chiang Mai, as the new party leader, replacing Paetongtarn Shinawatra. 

The move marks a new chapter for the party, one intentionally free of the Shinawatra family name, in an attempt to unite various factions under a neutral leadership. 

Political observers are now watching closely to see how Pheu Thai will steer its course in this post-Shinawatra era, particularly in the Northeast, long regarded as the party’s stronghold and a key battleground in the upcoming election. 

The Shinawatra brand played a major role in the party’s past electoral success, delivering 73 MPs from the region in the last poll. This time, however, the challenge is fiercer. 

The Bhumjaithai Party has been aggressively expanding its influence across the Northeast, recruiting local political figures and leveraging populist campaigns, while the People’s Party continues to maintain momentum in the region, as reflected in recent opinion polls. 

Attention also turns to Pheu Thai’s prime-ministerial candidates, and whether the party can truly break free from the long-shadowed influence of the Shinawatra family. 

As Thailand’s political landscape shapes up into a “three-camp” contest, blue, orange, and red, Pheu Thai faces intense competition not only for dominance in Parliament but also for leadership of the next government. 

At the same time, a potential fourth bloc, including Klatham, Democrat, Palang Pracharath, Chartthaipattana, and other smaller parties, could emerge as a crucial swing factor in determining the balance of power in the race for the seat in Government House.