Rescuing Hat Yai flood crisis: The battle for southern popularity

The southern region of Thailand, particularly Hat Yai in Songkhla, is facing its most severe flooding in decades, exacerbated by relentless rains and floodwaters from the Nakhon Si Thammarat mountain range. The crisis has entered its fifth day, with no immediate relief in sight.

In response, the government has declared a state of emergency and appointed Deputy Prime Minister Thammanat Prompao, also Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives, to oversee the situation. However, there has been limited progress in addressing the disaster.

Additionally, the government has established a "war room" led by Paradorn Prissananantakul, the Minister Attached to the Prime Minister’s Office, to oversee the response efforts.

Meanwhile, the opposition “People's Party” has sent Pukkamon "Lisa" Noonanant to be among the first responders in the field, followed by Natthaphong Ruangpanyawut, the party’s leader and prime ministerial candidate, to provide aid and support to the victims of this calamity.

The ongoing debate about the root causes of the severe flooding in Hat Yai, an economic hub in southern Thailand, has intensified. 

Many locals are focusing on the Mayor of Hat Yai, who failed to issue a timely "red flag" warning to residents. As massive floodwaters surged, coupled with heavy rainfall and rising sea levels, Hat Yai was left severely affected and remains in a critical condition to this day.

Hat Yai is a strategically important area for southern elections, being a key economic centre with a market valued in the billions. 

During the 2023 elections, Hat Yai was split into two constituencies. In the second constituency, Sarttra Sripan of the United Thai Nation Party, who later joined the Bhumjaithai Party, was the elected MP. In the third constituency, Somyot Plaiduang of the Democrat Party (DP) was the elected MP. However, rumours suggest that Somyot may also switch to the Bhumjaithai Party.

Looking ahead to the 2024 election, the  Bhumjaithai Party is focusing heavily on Hat Yai, anticipating candidates to switch allegiances and run for re-election in the same area. Additionally, the Klatham Party, led by Thammanat, is expected to contest Hat Yai aggressively.

The People's Party also continues to target the southern region, hoping to strengthen its presence, particularly after establishing dominance in Phuket, which has earned the nickname "Orange Island."

Pukkamon, who has been active in helping flood victims, travelled to Nakhon Si Thammarat first before arriving in Hat Yai to assist.

In the 2023 elections in Hat Yai, although the People's Party did not win, finishing in second and third place, they secured over 62,000 party-list votes in total. In the second constituency, the Orange Party received 20,385 votes in the district and 30,324 party-list votes. In the third constituency, they garnered 19,885 votes in the district and 32,224 party-list votes.

The upcoming 2024 election is expected to be a fierce contest among three parties: Bhumjaithai, Klatham Party, and the People’s Party, which has already started selecting candidates. Of the 112 previous winners in 2023, around 86 are expected to seek re-election in their original districts.

The Bhumjaithai Party seems to have lost some ground, as Hat Yai falls under the jurisdiction of  Narongporn " Mayor Pan" Na Phatthalung, who is part of the "Bhumjaithai " network.

However, in managing the water crisis, Narongporn has faced heavy criticism regarding his on-the-ground handling of the situation. About a week before the flood crisis, he had inspected the water situation and assured that everything was under control.

Yet, when the flood disaster unfolded, spanning from areas in Surat Thani to Nakhon Si Thammarat, there was no visible action from him. Even after receiving "warning signals" from the central authorities, he failed to issue a timely "red flag" alert. 

It was only at the last minute that measures were taken, by which time Hat Yai had already been submerged.

This allowed the People’s Party to turn the crisis into an opportunity. Natthaphong quickly flew from Bangkok to assist the residents, accompanied by Pukkamon, who had already arrived on the ground. 

They also utilised the party’s IT team, which is part of Natthapong’s "Geek Movement" network, to create a platform and dashboard that collected real-time data from the affected areas.

This swift action in aiding flood victims not only helped those in need but also reinforced the party's image as a "new generation" force, further boosting its popularity.

This also highlighted the repeated management failures of the Bhumjaithai Party, with Natthaphong criticising both the Bhumjaithai Party and Klatham Party for their inadequate handling of the situation. 

He pointed out that the efforts of volunteers were not effective due to unclear information on many fronts. Although the government has set up a crisis response centre, there remains confusion over who is in charge of the operation, whether it is the Chief of Defence Forces or Thammanat, the Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives. 

This lack of clarity on command has left both government agencies and volunteers unsure of whose orders to follow when decisions need to be made in the field.

"More importantly," he added, "not only is the government failing to acknowledge its mistakes regarding unclear and inconsistent warnings, but it is also shifting the blame onto the people. The government should focus on boosting morale and offering support to the affected citizens, rather than passing the responsibility onto them."

As the floodwaters subside and recovery begins, the battle for Hat Yai will be a key focus in the upcoming election. Whoever can emerge from the aftermath of this unprecedented flood crisis as the strongest political force will have a significant advantage in securing the region for the next election.