Population policy must become a national priority as Thailand’s birth rate keeps falling

Only a few days after the New Year, there is an issue that deserves attention: newborns. With National Children’s Day falling on the second Saturday of January and a general election due on February 8, population policy should be treated as a national priority. This has already become a major problem in wealthy countries such as Japan and South Korea.

Data from the Bureau of Registration Administration under the Department of Provincial Administration, Interior Ministry, shows that in 2025 Thailand recorded 416,000 newborns — falling below 500,000 for a second consecutive year and reaching the lowest level in 75 years. In other words, it is the lowest figure since 1950, when Field Marshal Plaek Phibunsongkhram was prime minister. That year, Thailand recorded 525,800 births — and it has long been taught that Field Marshal Plaek pursued policies encouraging Thais to have children as part of ambitions to build national strength.

That generation became the baby boomers, born in the post-war “good times”, when people felt secure and had larger families. From 1950, Thailand’s number of births rose steadily until 1963, when it reached 1,020,051 — the first year in which births exceeded one million, during the premiership of Field Marshal Thanom Kittikachorn. For the next 20 years — from 1963 to 1983 — Thailand recorded more than one million births every year, with the peak in 1971 at 1,221,228. From 1984 onwards, annual births fell below one million.

Thailand is not alone in facing falling births. With a population of around 66 million, fewer than 500,000 newborns a year is a trend the country must take seriously. Even China, with a population of around 1.4 billion, has the same problem. In 2024, China recorded only 9.54 million births — about half the level of a decade earlier, when it began easing restrictions on how many children people could have. A clear sign of the shift is that India has overtaken China as the world’s most populous country, and India’s economic growth has been supported in part by a larger share of young workers.

With elections next month, parties seeking to form the next government should approach population policy in a systematic, long-term way — not as ad hoc measures or short-term subsidies. Encouraging people to have children should start by ensuring that “having a child is not a life risk”. The state should invest seriously in basic welfare, such as high-quality, free prenatal care and childbirth services; accessible, standardised childcare centres near communities and workplaces; adequate maternity and parental leave for both mothers and fathers; and housing and tax policies that support working families. These measures would reduce the cost of raising children and give younger people the confidence to start families.

At the same time, any effort to grow the population must go hand in hand with improving quality of life and human capital. The government should prioritise education, future skills development, and a healthcare system capable of supporting an ageing society as well as children and working adults. The goal is for children to grow into a capable workforce — not simply to increase the number of names on the population register.

Population policy is therefore not the responsibility of a single ministry. It is a national agenda that must integrate the economy, labour, education and social policy. If the state continues to leave younger generations to shoulder insecurity alone, the falling birth rate will worsen — and the country’s competitiveness and long-term sustainability will inevitably suffer.