Political instability main worry for tourism industry
The tourism outlook remains bright this year, but clouds lie ahead, especially political instability as the major threat to foreign visitor sentiment, according to the Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting.
“I believe tourism is a rising star to help drive the economy if there is no serious political trouble taking place,’’ Assistant Professor Thanavath Phonvichai, the centre’s director, said yesterday.
The centre’s survey found 29 per cent of tourism-sector participants were worried most about politics, followed by an economic crisis at 24 per cent, natural disaster at 23 per cent and an outbreak of epidemic and new diseases at 22 per cent.
Political stability was still lacking, according to 40 per cent of the 600 tourism operators nationwide that were polled from December 26 to January 2. The question highlighted in this poll was operators’ opinion on global economic trends and Thailand’s tourism in 2013.
Thanavath said it was clear that politics was considered as a key risk to the industry. Since early this year, the political scene has been plagued with conflicts, such as a drive to amend the Constitution and a land dispute involving the Preah Vihear Temple, which could spark a repeat of demonstrations by the yellow-shirt movement against the ruling of the International Court of Justice.
DAMAGE LINKED TO TENSIONS
However, the damage to tourism will depend on the level of political tensions. If the situation gets worse by interfering with tourists’ convenience like the closure of an airport, the impact will be huge.
Operators’ concern over the political and economic situation has stifled new investment in the industry. About 85 per cent have no plan to invest in 2013. They will keep waiting to see how political and economic developments unfold, and also how they can access funding. A full 56 per cent see no change in the economy this year while 33 per cent think it will be better than 2012.
Even as the minimum daily wage rises to Bt300, operators should be able to adjust to the new environment. In the short term, the government should offer tax deductions to save their business, while in the long term, skills training should be held. The growth in visitor arrivals would help offset their rising costs.
Based on political certainty, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) should succeed in achieving its foreign tourist target of 24.5 million, up 11.4 per cent from last year. Tourism revenue is forecast to grow by 19.1 per cent to Bt1.149 trillion and spending per head by 6.9 per cent to Bt46,898.
Suraphon Svetasreni, TAT’s governor, welcomed the poll results and acknowledged political uncertainty was among the challenges. However, the poll would be useful for the TAT to design a practical plan for tourism promotion.
Although the global economy, especially with Europe steeped in debt and the US facing a fiscal cliff, is not in the best of health, Thailand’s tourism industry is still on the rise. In 2012, the poll found that 49 per cent of participants said they did not experience any problems from such a drop.
In 2013, 48 per cent of the respondents believe the country’s tourism prospects will stay unchanged from 2012, but 47 per cent said the situation would improve.
A third viewed eco-tourism as the market with the most potential, and felt that the government should encourage it. Following were honeymoons and weddings at 21 per cent, shopping at 21 per cent and medical tourism at 20 per cent.
