Shippers’ council bucks trend, forecasts 2%
The Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC) is sticking with its forecast that exports this year will return to positive growth of 2 per cent, against other agencies that foresee continued export contraction.
The Bank of Thailand and academic institutions predict a further decline in export value this year of about 0.2 per cent, based on many negative factors.
However, the TNSC bases its estimate of 2-per-cent growth to US$225 billion (Bt8 trillion) on current government policy of close cooperation with private enterprises to boost exports, council president Nopporn Thepsithar said yesterday.
Export value shrank by 5.8 per cent last year.
Despite its rosy forecast, however, the council acknowledges many challenging factors. The economies of many developing nations will grow slowly, while the European Union and Japan see slow recoveries. Political conflicts between many countries will also have a negative effect on trade, while natural crises caused by climate change will affect the supply of many agricultural products.
These factors could affect the prices of crops and commodities worldwide, and Thailand could find it difficult to stand up to the tough competition from many countries, Nopporn said.
The TNSC says the export sector needs to increase its competitiveness in many ways, as well as form closer cooperation under trade partnerships and free-trade agreements.
The council has urged that the government announce clearly that Thailand intends to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to show international traders that this country will not be left behind.
As of now, Nopporn is worried that the unclear signals from the government on its position on the TPP will damage Thailand’s export competitiveness in the near future, since trading partners will shift to ordering goods from TPP members, especially Vietnam and Malaysia.
Vallop Vitanakorn, vice chairman of the council, said that to drive export expansion this year, the government needed to focus on making more shipment to cities in targeted markets, mainly Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam, rather than concentrating only on border trading.
Many industries should also be focused on. To reach at least 2-per-cent export growth this year, shipments by key industries such as electronics and automobiles and parts should expand by 4 per cent, while exports of the agricultural and agro-industrial sectors need to expand by 2.3 per cent this year, he said.
