Thailand stays on US currency watchlist, meets one criterion

Thailand remains on the US Treasury’s currency Monitoring List but met only one of the three assessment criteria in 2025, bringing it closer to possible removal after the next review.

The US Treasury said on July 23 that no major trading partner had manipulated its currency to gain an unfair trade advantage during the four quarters ending in December 2025. None met all three criteria for enhanced analysis under US trade law.

Ten economies remained on the Monitoring List: China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Germany, Ireland and Switzerland. All had also appeared on the list in the January 2026 report.

 

Thailand, Singapore and Switzerland each met only one criterion. The Treasury said they would be removed if they continued to meet fewer than two in the next reporting period.

Inclusion on the Monitoring List does not mean that a country has been formally designated a currency manipulator. It means its exchange-rate practices and broader economic policies remain subject to closer US scrutiny.

Thailand meets only trade-surplus threshold

The Treasury assesses major trading partners against three criteria under the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015:

1. A bilateral goods and services surplus with the US of at least US$15 billion
2. A current-account surplus of at least 3% of gross domestic product
3. Net foreign-exchange purchases in at least eight of 12 months, totalling at least 2% of GDP

An economy is normally placed on the Monitoring List when it meets at least two of the three thresholds.

Thailand met only the bilateral trade-surplus criterion in 2025.

Its goods and services surplus with the US stood at US$72 billion, driven almost entirely by trade in goods. The figure was about 58% higher than a year earlier, reflecting the early shipment of goods ahead of anticipated US tariffs and continued growth in electronics exports.

Advanced-technology products accounted for roughly half of Thailand’s goods exports to the US, according to data cited in the Treasury report.

Thailand’s current-account surplus was equivalent to 2.8% of GDP, below the 3% threshold, although it had increased from 2.2% in 2024.

The Treasury attributed the improvement mainly to a larger goods surplus, strong global demand for technology and artificial-intelligence-related products, and a narrowing services deficit.

Thai authorities reported net foreign-exchange purchases of US$10 billion during 2025, equivalent to about 1.8% of GDP. Although purchases took place in 10 months of the year, their total value remained below the 2% threshold required for the intervention criterion.

The Treasury said Thailand’s intervention appeared to focus on smoothing periods of strong baht appreciation. The baht gained 9% against the dollar during the reporting period, rather than being pushed lower to make Thai exports cheaper.

In an October 28, 2025 joint statement with the US Treasury, the Bank of Thailand committed to disclosing its foreign-exchange intervention publicly at least twice a year, with a three-month reporting delay.

US broadens scrutiny of currency policies

Before the January 2026 report, Treasury assessments had concentrated primarily on whether governments intervened to prevent their currencies from appreciating against the dollar, which could make their exports cheaper in international markets.

The Treasury has since widened its approach to examine whether authorities also act against depreciation pressure, and whether they treat upward and downward currency movements consistently.

Its analysis also considers activity conducted through state-owned banks, sovereign funds, pension funds and other entities that may influence exchange rates without appearing as direct central-bank intervention.

The trade-weighted dollar weakened by 7.5% during 2025, including an 8.4% decline against advanced-economy currencies. Despite the fall, its real effective value remained 12% above its 20-year average at the end of March 2026.

The yen ended 2025 almost unchanged against the dollar after wide swings during the year, but remained near multi-decade lows on a trade-weighted basis. Japan did not conduct official foreign-exchange intervention during the reporting period, according to the Treasury.

China singled out over transparency

China remained on the Monitoring List but was not formally designated a currency manipulator.

The Treasury said China provided less transparency over its exchange-rate management than any other major trading partner covered by the report. China was the only economy assessed that did not publish data on its foreign-exchange intervention.

The renminbi appreciated by 4.4% against the dollar in 2025, but weakened by 3.4% against China’s trade-weighted currency basket and by 2.4% in real effective terms.

The Treasury cited an International Monetary Fund assessment that the renminbi was undervalued by between 12.1% and 20.7% in real effective terms, with a midpoint estimate of 16.4%.

The department warned that China could be designated a currency manipulator in a future report if evidence showed that authorities were using formal or informal channels to prevent the renminbi from appreciating.

The decision not to make that designation came after Republican Senator Rick Scott and Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren urged Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to consider a formal finding and coordinate pressure on China with other Group of Seven governments.

Thailand, Singapore and Switzerland will be removed from the Monitoring List if they again meet fewer than two of the three criteria in the Treasury’s next reporting period.