Israel-Hamas conflict to have minor impact on Thai stocks: analysts
The recent attacks by Hamas on Israel are viewed as limited and will only have a minor impact on the Thai stock market, according to analysts. Stocks related to tourism and hospitals are relatively unaffected, they added.
In the past, global stock markets, including the Thai market, have been significantly impacted during international conflicts. However, the nature of each attack varies, indicating differences in intensity and flexibility. The recent attacks by Hamas on Israel are seen as limited.
Sornpol Veerametheekul, senior vice president of the securities analysis division at Kasikorn Securities, agreed with the assessment, noting that Thailand is geographically distant from the conflict area, which reduces the direct impact. Historical statistics show that the average global impact of conflicts since 2000 is around 1-4%, while Thailand's impact is generally lower, around 1-2%. Typically, the effects of such situations tend to subside within 1-2 weeks, after which the market stabilises.
Thai stocks directly impacted are relatively low in number because conflicts like the current one have occurred continuously for the past 50 years. Notably, the conflict in 1973 had a significant impact on global crude oil prices, along with gold and certain individual stocks benefiting from the increased prices.
The impact on Thai hospitals is limited as well. Hospitals in the Middle East, such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Oman, are not heavily impacted by wars, so the impact on hospital stocks in Thailand is relatively low.
Nattapon Kamthakrua, Yuanta Securities (Thailand)'s director of securities analysis division, said that it was essential to focus on the current situation rather than past statistics. The ongoing conflict might be limited to the Gaza Strip, but if it escalates further, it could have more significant repercussions.
The direct impact on Thailand is not substantial because the country has relatively low investments in Israel, both in terms of exports and imports. Energy-related stocks might be affected due to increased crude oil prices, but this depends on the conflict's duration and intensity.
Stocks related to tourism might be affected due to reduced foreign visitors. Major tourism-related stock, such as Minor International Plc (MINT) could face pressure because they rely heavily on foreign income. Medical-related stocks, on the other hand, are considered to have a high potential for stability in Thailand, as long as the situation in Israel and Gaza does not escalate significantly.
