Thai GDP drops 0.6% in Q3, NESDC keeps 2025 growth forecast at 2%

Thailand’s economy contracted by 0.6% in the third quarter of 2025 from the previous quarter after seasonal adjustment, with growth slowing to 1.2% year-on-year from 2.8% in the second quarter, the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) reported on Monday.

NESDC secretary-general Onfa Vejjajiva said the economy expanded 2.4% in the first nine months of the year. Unemployment stood at 0.76%, down from 0.88% in the previous quarter and 1.02% a year earlier. 

Headline inflation remained negative for the second consecutive quarter at –0.7%, while core inflation averaged 0.8%.

Thailand posted a current account surplus of US$2.7 billion (88.3 billion baht), with foreign reserves at US$262.4 billion at the end of September. Public debt stood at 12.23 trillion baht, or 64.8% of GDP.

For 2025 as a whole, the NESDC maintained its growth forecast at 2%, down from 2.5% in 2024, with average inflation at –0.2% and a current account surplus equal to 2.8% of GDP.

Onfa noted that although global exports were initially expected to decline, they have shown growth, prompting an upward revision of global economic expansion from 2.7% to 3.4% this year. However, world trade volume is forecast to slow to 2.3% in 2026, partly due to the US’s tariff hikes.

She warned that Thailand could face headwinds, as 82% of Thai exports to the US fall under categories targeted by higher US tariffs—more than any other country in the region. 

Moreover, a significant share of goods exported from Thailand originate from Chinese re-exports, while both Thai exports to the US and imports from China have been rising, which she described as “a key structural issue that warrants close review.”