Thai exports to ‘normalise’ in 2026 with 2-4% growth forecast, shippers warn

Thailand’s exports are expected to keep expanding in 2026, but at a more modest pace of 2-4%, as the surge seen in 2025 fades and the sector returns to a more “normalised” growth path, the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC) said.

Thanakorn Kasetsuwan, chairman of the TNSC, said the council expects export growth in 2026 to be lower than 2025’s double-digit rebound. He described 2026 as a period of normalisation after a strong recovery in 2025, which was boosted by a low base and the acceleration of orders in some periods.

The council said single-digit growth below 5% is consistent with the current global economic environment. Despite heavy pressures, it believes Thai exports still have enough “supporting factors” to remain in positive territory. It said it sees opportunities in new markets and in quicker adaptation by Thai exporters, when assessed by product structure and industry-by-industry trends.

The TNSC cited positive factors for 2026 exports including expansion in emerging markets such as the Middle East, South Asia and Africa; global production base diversification; and trade agreements including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and other free trade agreements (FTAs).

Negative factors include slowing growth in major trading partners; volatile logistics costs and freight rates; geopolitical risks; and a stronger baht in some periods, which can weaken price competitiveness.

Export categories expected to perform well in 2026 include:

• food and agro-processing products;
• goods linked to food security;
• higher value-added industrial products integrated into global supply chains; and
• niche/specialty products.

Sectors flagged for close monitoring include:

• labour-intensive goods facing price competition from lower-cost countries;
• unprocessed primary agricultural products; and
• some industrial products overly reliant on traditional core markets.

The TNSC urged the next government to move quickly on four priority areas:

1. seriously address logistics costs, including ports, fees and trade facilitation systems;
2. accelerate FTA negotiations and ensure practical utilisation, particularly in high-potential new markets;
3. support upgrading Thai products from price-based competition to quality and value-added competition;
4. ensure policy stability so exporters can plan for the medium and long term.

Thanakorn added that part of the strong export performance in 2025 — and the expected 2-4% growth in 2026 — may be supported by goods imported and transhipped through Thailand, which helps lift headline export numbers as long as importing countries do not tighten local content requirements.

He said this must be monitored closely to ensure export growth reflects genuine domestic production and remains sustainable over the long term.