JSCCIB maintains Thailand’s GDP outlook amid continued SME pressure
Private-sector leaders say energy risks have eased and AI-related investment is supporting the economy, but SMEs have yet to recover.
- The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has maintained its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Thailand at a range of 1.6% to 2.0%.
- A primary concern for the committee is the ongoing struggle of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), which have yet to recover and are not benefiting from the country's economic growth.
- The economic recovery is described as uneven or "K-shaped," with strong export growth and foreign investment failing to translate into benefits for the broader domestic economy and employment.
- Positive factors supporting the outlook include easing Middle East tensions, falling energy prices, and strong investment related to AI and data centers.
Payong Srivanich, chairman of the Thai Bankers' Association, chaired a meeting of the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB).
Poj Aramwattananont, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Board of Trade of Thailand, and Pimjai Leeissaranukul, chair of the Federation of Thai Industries, joined the press conference.
The meeting assessed that the Thai economy had started to see positive factors after tensions in the Middle East eased, but the continuing concern was SMEs, which have yet to recover.
Risks from energy supply chain disruption begin to ease
Following temporary ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran, concerns over the impact on the manufacturing sector have eased, while energy prices have fallen.
Oil prices as of June 2026 declined from US$75 per barrel before the ceasefire to US$68 per barrel.
Several commodity prices have also passed their peak during the period of conflict in the Middle East.
However, damage to important oil infrastructure and low OECD oil reserves could mean prices do not fall much further below current levels.
Energy security will therefore remain important in the period ahead.
One approach is to ease legal restrictions in the energy sector, such as the export of refined oil, to manage high oil stocks, which could be a cost factor in the country’s energy prices.
Global megatrend from AI and data-centre investment
This is a key factor driving the Thai economy through continued strong export growth and improving private investment, with the Bank of Thailand recently revising its GDP forecast to 2.3%.
However, Thailand’s economic growth remains uneven in a K-shaped pattern, with households still facing low purchasing power because of the impact of higher living costs and a weakening labour market.
At the same time, strong growth in exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) has not fed through to the real economy and employment on the same scale as in the past.
This is reflected in low capacity utilisation, particularly in traditional industries.
Meanwhile, SMEs and small-scale players outside the formal system are not benefiting from economic growth.
Joint approaches must therefore be accelerated to use technology and FDI to raise entrepreneurial capacity and domestic labour productivity, while supporting SME participation through Thailand Content & Regional Value Content (RVC), as the country moves towards an ageing society, which will put further pressure on Thai labour productivity in the future.
JSCCIB supports restructuring towards a new economy
This is intended to enhance competitiveness.
Although Thailand improved to 26th place from 30th in the previous year in IMD’s latest 2026 assessment, several areas still need urgent action, while regional peers are catching up closely.
Amid expectations from credit rating agencies for Thailand’s next phase of structural reform, examples include standardisation and integrated data connectivity to “connect the dots”, such as labour data, to help design and measure policies more precisely and reduce hidden costs in the system.
The JSCCIB will work closely with the Joint Public and Private Sector Committee for Economic Problem Solving (JPPCC) to restructure and enhance the potential of the Thai economy through four key pillars, in line with the World Bank flagship report’s goal of pushing Thailand towards high-income status within the next 12 years, and the Reinvent Thailand approach to drive seven target industries and build strong new growth engines.
The JSCCIB, together with the World Bank and the public and private sectors, is preparing to organise an affiliated programme for the 2026 IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings before October to demonstrate Thailand’s potential and build confidence among the global community, particularly in driving a new economic model focused on productivity, innovation and investment in future industries.
JSCCIB’s 2026 economic forecast framework
GDP
- 2025: 2.4%
- As of April-May 2026: 1.2-1.6%
- As of June 2026: 1.6-2.0%
- As of July 2026: 1.6-2.0%
Exports
- 2025: 12.9%
- As of April-May 2026: -1.5% to -0.5%
- As of June 2026: 8.0-10.0%
- As of July 2026: 8.0-10.0%
Inflation
- 2025: -0.1%
- As of April-May 2026: 2.0-3.0%
- As of June 2026: 2.5-3.0%
- As of July 2026: 2.5-3.0%
Latest forecast as of July 2026
- GDP: 1.6-2.0%
- Exports: 8.0-10.0%
- Inflation: 2.5-3.0%
