Thailand remains in World Bank’s upper-middle-income category
With GNI per capita at US$7,690, Thailand remains below the high-income cut-off, while current growth rates could put Viet Nam ahead.
- Thailand remains in the World Bank's upper-middle-income category for 2026, with a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of US$7,690.
- This figure is significantly below the high-income threshold, which is defined as a GNI per capita of more than US$14,375.
- Vietnam has newly entered the upper-middle-income group and, based on recent growth rates, is projected to potentially achieve high-income status before Thailand.
The World Bank has announced its 2026 income classifications, with Thailand remaining an upper-middle-income economy on gross national income (GNI) per capita of US$7,690, below the high-income threshold of more than US$14,375. Viet Nam has moved into the upper-middle-income group for the first time and, if growth continues at the same rate, could reach high-income status before Thailand.
The World Bank has announced its annual country income classifications, effective from Wednesday (July 1, 2026) to Wednesday (June 30, 2027). Thailand remains an upper-middle-income economy, with GNI per capita at US$7,690, below the high-income cut-off, which is set at more than US$14,375.
The classifications are based on GNI per capita calculated using the World Bank Atlas method, the standard used by the World Bank to compare income levels worldwide. The thresholds are revised every July 1.
Although many people regard GDP growth as a key economic indicator, the World Bank does not determine whether an economy has reached high-income status by GDP. It uses GNI per capita as the main measure.
The criterion reflects a country’s ability to raise average incomes rather than economic expansion alone. It also takes into account labour productivity, economic structure and the capacity to create added value over the long term.
For 2026, the World Bank divides economies into four groups:
- Low income: no more than US$1,175
- Lower-middle income: US$1,176–US$4,635
- Upper-middle income: US$4,636–US$14,375
- High income: more than US$14,375
The latest announcement moved six countries into higher income groups, while none moved down.
Lower-middle income → upper-middle income
- Viet Nam (US$4,970)
- The Philippines (US$4,850)
- Jordan (US$5,260)
- Micronesia (US$4,760)
- Sri Lanka (US$4,670)
Low income → lower-middle income
- Togo (US$1,350)
Notably, the six countries did not follow the ‘same formula’ to move up.
Vietnam’s move was driven by export-sector growth.
The Philippines expanded across several parts of its economy.
Sri Lanka recovered after its economic crisis.
Jordan and Togo, meanwhile, benefited from revisions to statistical data and national accounts.
Thailand took 23 years to move from a lower-middle-income economy to an upper-middle-income economy, reaching the higher category in 2011.
Viet Nam took only 15 years to reach upper-middle-income status, highlighting the difference in the pace of per-capita income growth over the period.
However, moving from upper-middle-income to high-income status is more difficult because it requires improvements in productivity, innovation and economic structure, not merely short-term income growth.
The World Bank’s World Development Report 2024 said that only 34 countries had reached high-income status since 1990, while more than 100 remained in the middle-income group. Many could take several more decades to move up if they continue growing at the same rate.
Thailand’s current GNI per capita under the Atlas method is US$7,690, while the high-income cut-off is more than US$14,375, about US$6,700 per person above Thailand’s current level.
If GNI per capita in both countries is assumed to grow at the same compound annual growth rate (CAGR) as over the past 10 years, at 3.7% a year for Thailand and 7.6% for Viet Nam, Viet Nam would be expected to overtake Thailand in about 11 years, in 2037.
Under the World Bank’s current threshold, Viet Nam would reach high-income status in around 2040, while Thailand would cross it in 2043, about three years later.
However, this is only a scenario analysis based on the assumption that past growth rates continue. In reality, the outcome could change because of labour productivity, investment, economic policy, demographic structure, global economic conditions and the World Bank’s income thresholds, which are revised every year.
Although the model is not intended to predict the future, it shows that today’s higher-income advantage could change if another country raises productivity and sustains income growth. This is at the heart of escaping the middle-income trap.
The World Bank’s income classifications are a tool for reflecting average income levels, not a measure of whether one country is ‘developed’ or ‘more advanced’ than another.
For Thailand, reaching high-income status is therefore not simply a race to push GNI per capita past the World Bank’s threshold. It would be the result of an economy capable of generating greater productivity, innovation and added value, while raising incomes broadly.
Becoming a ‘high-income country’ may be one development milestone, but Thailand’s future will be determined by its ability to raise productivity, foster innovation and sustain income growth, because these are the foundations of sustainable growth.
Source: Thansettakij
