Thai exports surge 20.8% in June, driven by electronics and AI-era demand

Thailand’s exports continued their strong run in June 2026, expanding 20.8% year on year, supported by electronics, phones, electrical appliances, vehicles and parts, though the Commerce Ministry warned that US tariff uncertainty could affect the outlook in the second half of the year.

Nantapong Chiralerspong, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) under the Commerce Ministry, said exports in June were valued at US$34.6559 billion, marking the 24th consecutive month of expansion.

Excluding oil-related products, gold and military-related goods, exports grew 23.1%.

Imports in June were valued at US$41.1906 billion, up 50.3%, resulting in a trade deficit of US$6.5347 billion.

Industrial goods remained the main driver of export growth, particularly electronics, phones, electrical appliances, vehicles and parts. The momentum reflected rising demand for infrastructure supporting artificial intelligence technology and smart devices in the AI era.

Agricultural and agro-industrial products still contracted overall, although some categories returned to growth, including rubber, canned and processed seafood, and sugar.

First-half exports rise 17.6%

For the first six months of 2026, Thailand’s exports were valued at US$196.7418 billion, up 17.6%.

Imports stood at US$228.4858 billion, up 38.0%, resulting in a trade deficit of US$31.744 billion.

Excluding oil-related products, gold and military-related goods, first-half exports expanded 17.7%.

Industrial goods grow for 27th straight month

June export growth was led by industrial goods, which expanded 25.1%, marking the 27th consecutive month of growth.

Key expanding products included computers, equipment and components; automobiles, equipment and parts; telephones, equipment and parts; machinery and parts; circuit boards; chemicals; transformers and parts; and batteries and parts.

Products that contracted included internal combustion piston engines and parts, as well as garments.

For the first six months of 2026, exports of industrial goods grew 21.6%.

Agricultural exports contract

Exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products fell 6.5% in June, contracting for the second consecutive month.

Agricultural products declined 10.8%, while agro-industrial products fell 0.9%, marking the third consecutive month of decline.

Products that continued to grow included rubber, sugar, canned and processed seafood, pet food, and processed chicken.

Key products that contracted included fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruit; wheat products and other prepared foods; canned and processed fruit; beverages; vegetable and animal fats and oils; fresh, chilled and frozen chicken; and fresh, chilled and frozen shrimp.

For the first half of 2026, exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products contracted 3.2%.

Major markets remain strong

Most key export markets continued to expand, supported by electronics demand and advance orders ahead of uncertainty over trade policy, particularly in the US market.

The trend was in line with the Global Manufacturing PMI, which expanded for the 11th consecutive month. Manufacturing output increased in major trading partners, including China, the United States, the eurozone, Japan and the United Kingdom, although output and new-order growth began to slow.

Exports to main markets rose 25.5%. Shipments to the United States grew 44.3%, China 4.9%, Japan 22.7%, the European Union 22.3%, and ASEAN-5 40.5%. However, exports to the CLMV markets contracted 5.6%.

Exports to secondary markets expanded 15.9%, with growth in Australia at 32.7%, Africa 9.9%, Latin America 50.7%, Russia and the CIS 5.1%, and the United Kingdom 15.6%. Exports to South Asia fell 6.3%, while shipments to the Middle East declined 6.9%.

Exports to other markets contracted 59.9%.

Electronics demand to support second half

Nantapong said exports in the second half of 2026 were expected to continue growing, driven by sustained demand for electronics.

However, he warned of negative factors, including worsening geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over US trade measures and import tariffs.

The Commerce Ministry has taken several proactive measures, including accelerating negotiations on new trade agreements such as the Thailand-EU FTA and the ASEAN-Canada FTA.

It is also moving quickly to clarify concerns and negotiate tariff issues with the United States.

In addition, the ministry is coordinating with the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC) to tackle nominee businesses and illegal cross-border investment, in order to protect Thai entrepreneurs and support sustainable export stability.

Export growth expected to slow

Nantapong said export growth in the second half was likely to slow compared with the first half, as the front-loading of imports by trading partners begins to ease.

TPSO has assessed three possible full-year export scenarios: 5% under a cautious base case, 8% under a moderate scenario, and 11% under the best-case scenario.

On the US Section 301 tariff measures, under which Thailand has been placed in a group facing a 12.5% tariff, Nantapong said around 50% of Thailand’s electronics exports to the US are on the exemption list because the US still needs technology-related goods.

Products that may be affected include rubber products and some processed food items.

Thailand may also be at a disadvantage compared with competitors such as Malaysia and Indonesia, which face lower tariff levels of around 10%.

On the issue of excess capacity, the Commerce Ministry insisted that Thailand does not have subsidy policies that distort market mechanisms. It is currently negotiating under the ART framework to seek a conclusion on future tariff rates.

Products requiring close monitoring include automobiles, parts and machinery.