Thai GDP outlook rises but SMEs face widening divide

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Thailand to 2.1-2.5%, from 1.6-2.0%, but warned that stronger exports and private investment are producing increasingly uneven benefits across the economy.

The committee also lifted its export growth forecast to 12-16%, up from its previous projection of 8-10%, after both exports and private investment expanded more strongly than expected.

Payong Srivanich, chairman of the Thai Bankers’ Association, announced the revisions after a JSCCIB meeting involving the association, the Federation of Thai Industries and the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

Despite the improved headline forecasts, the JSCCIB said the transmission of export and investment growth into the domestic economy had weakened significantly, leaving traditional industries and smaller businesses at risk of falling further behind.

Stronger growth delivers fewer domestic gains

The committee said Thailand was retaining less value from its exports and new investment because production relied heavily on imported components and materials.

New investment projects were also creating fewer jobs than similar investment cycles had generated in the past.

In earlier periods, average export growth of about 14% and investment growth of 10% were associated with GDP expansion of approximately 6-7%, the JSCCIB said. Comparable momentum now produces substantially weaker growth in the wider economy.

The committee described the problem as declining “domestic value capture”, meaning that a smaller share of the economic value generated by exports and investment remains within Thailand.

It said Thailand must remain on the radar of global investors, but the country also needed to build stronger domestic links around incoming investment so that more benefits reached local businesses, workers and supply chains.

New-economy sectors occupy the upper arm

The JSCCIB has monitored Thailand’s K-shaped economic structure since June 2026, examining exports, production and company financial statements by industry, business nationality and company size.

Its findings show that the upper arm of the K is concentrated in new-economy sectors benefiting from digital technology and artificial intelligence, particularly computers and semiconductors.

Companies in these expanding industries are predominantly Chinese, US and Singaporean.

The lower arm consists of businesses facing intense competition from foreign products, including the automotive, petroleum and construction-materials sectors.

Over the past five years, production among Thai-owned SMEs in the lower arm across seven industries covered by the “Reinvent Thailand” initiative fell by an average of 8%.

Output among foreign-owned businesses in those industries declined by as much as 19%, with Japanese companies particularly affected.

The divide means national economic indicators alone may no longer provide a sufficient picture of conditions across different industries and business groups.

The JSCCIB called for improvements to industrial indicators in three areas: the coverage of businesses and sectors, the quality of the information collected, and the ability of the data to reflect changes in Thailand’s economic structure.

It proposed linking information held by several agencies, including the Office of Industrial Economics, the National Economic and Social Development Council and the Social Security Office, to support urgent structural reform.

Data centres test Thailand’s ability to retain value

Data centres provide an example of the investment opportunities Thailand must develop into a broader domestic industrial ecosystem, according to the committee.

Every 100 megawatts of data-centre investment represents more than THB60 billion in investment value, but the JSCCIB said the country must create stronger links from upstream suppliers to downstream businesses through vertical integration.

This would include expanding printed circuit board investment already approved by the Board of Investment, developing clean-energy and water infrastructure, moving existing industries towards smart manufacturing and preparing workers with the required skills.

Educational institutions should participate in workforce development, while better use of data could help Thailand expand new industries, including the creative economy.

The JSCCIB said these supporting activities were necessary to ensure that large investment projects produced a tangible effect on the domestic economy rather than operating largely through imported technology and inputs.

It has established a data centre working group to help develop the sector and maximise the economic benefits retained within Thailand.

Oil surge puts refineries and supply chains at risk

Alongside its structural concerns, the committee warned that renewed conflict in the Middle East was putting further pressure on global energy prices and increasing volatility in financial markets.

According to the JSCCIB, global crude oil prices reached US$95 a barrel in early September 2026, up from US$84 a barrel in July, while worldwide oil inventories continued to decline.

Restrictions on diesel exports have meanwhile caused refined petroleum products to accumulate in storage, forcing refinery operators to reduce production.

The resulting cuts have affected refining costs and the availability of by-products such as naphtha, benzene, toluene and para-xylene.

These materials are important feedstocks for the petrochemical, plastics, rubber, chemicals, automotive and packaging industries.

The committee urged the government to consider quickly easing the restrictions so that petroleum products could be exported through normal market mechanisms.

It also renewed an earlier proposal for the public and private sectors to manage the situation jointly.

The JSCCIB said the measures would help restore the balance between production and inventories, reduce the pressure on refineries and maintain continuity across Thailand’s industrial supply chains.

Bangkok summit to focus on economic reinvention

The committee said Thailand must accelerate efforts to “reinvent” its economy, remove structural constraints and capture opportunities created by the continuing realignment of global supply chains.

Building trust and confidence among investors would be essential to attracting the next wave of international investment, it added.

The JSCCIB and its partners will hold The Bangkok Business Summit 2026: Reinvent Thailand, Resilient ASEAN on September 3, 2026, at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center.

The summit will bring together representatives from the government, private sector and international organisations to discuss practical economic reforms.

The agenda will cover Thailand’s new growth engines, stronger competitiveness, investment in future industries, infrastructure and energy development, the transition towards a low-carbon economy, and efforts to make Thailand and ASEAN more resilient to global change.

Discussions will also examine how economic gains can be distributed more broadly through industrial supply chains, SMEs and local economies.