US Soy Bets on Southeast Asia as Global Trade Winds Shift

 

 

USSEC targets 22 million metric tonnes in regional exports within five years, but price sensitivity and South American rivalry threaten ambitions.

 

 

The S.E. Asia U.S. Agriculture Cooperators Conference 2026 concluded in Bangkok on Wednesday, wrapping up three days of trade dialogue built around the theme “Building Trusted Partnerships, Delivering Value and Reliability.” 

 

Co-organised by the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC), the U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council, and U.S. Wheat Associates, the gathering brought together American suppliers and Southeast Asian buyers for business-to-business meetings, keynote addresses and expert sessions covering global market trends, supply chains, sustainability and risk management.

 

At a press conference on Wednesday, Carlos Salinas, USSEC’s Executive Director for East Asia, laid out a bullish growth trajectory for American soy across the region — and made clear that the council views Southeast Asia as among its most strategically important frontiers.

 

 

 

 

 

“We have grown from 12 million metric tonnes to 16 million metric tonnes, and I am confident we can reach 22 million metric tonnes in the next five years. The fundamentals in this region are simply too strong to ignore,” Salinas stated. 

 

Salinas noted that soybean meal consumption across Southeast Asia alone is projected to grow by a further 12 million metric tonnes over the next decade, driven by expanding livestock and aquaculture sectors. 
 

For a non-profit organisation funded by US farmers and the US government, and whose twin strategic pillars are market access and differentiation, that trajectory represents a generational opportunity — if the obstacles can be navigated.

 

 

 

 

 

A Market Shaped by Structural Headwinds

Thailand is one of USSEC’s longest-standing partnerships in Southeast Asia, with collaboration stretching back more than 30 years. The country’s identity as the “Kitchen of the World” — encompassing world-class chicken, seafood and processed food exports — makes it a natural priority. 

 

Nearly 99 per cent of Thailand’s soy consumption is met through imports, underpinning the structural case for US suppliers. Yet the market remains stubbornly price-driven.

 

South American exporters routinely undercut US prices, partly aided by currency devaluations that periodically make Brazilian and Argentine soy significantly cheaper on landed-cost terms.

 

In a market where feed-mill margins are thin and procurement decisions are made on narrow differentials, that discount often proves decisive. Volatile baht-dollar exchange rates add a further layer of financial uncertainty for Thai buyers.

 

The global production backdrop makes the competitive challenge plain. Total world soybean output stands at approximately 420 million metric tonnes annually.

 

Brazil, at 170 to 180 million metric tonnes, is the dominant producer; the United States, at 115 to 120 million metric tonnes, is second. Bridging the cost gap between those two origins in price-sensitive Asian markets is the central commercial challenge USSEC faces.
 

 

 

 

 

The Quality Case — and Its Limits

USSEC’s response is to contest the market not on price but on value — a strategy that requires first changing how quality is measured. Salinas identified the entrenched reliance on crude protein as a proxy for feed quality as one of the most persistent barriers to wider adoption of US soy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

“The market has a misperception. Crude protein is not the right measure. What matters is amino acid digestibility — how much of the nutrition the animal can actually absorb and use. On that measure, U.S. soy is clearly superior,” Salinas explained. 

 

US soybeans are naturally dried rather than heat-processed, a distinction that preserves amino acid integrity, reduces heat damage and results in higher levels of digestible energy compared to competing origins. 

 

 

 

In partnership with Kasetsart University, USSEC has been promoting the Standardised Ileal Digestibility (SID) metric as a more meaningful framework for evaluating feed ingredients — one on which American soy performs markedly better than a crude protein comparison would suggest.

 

Sustainability adds a second dimension to the differentiation argument. US soy carries a lower carbon footprint than South American alternatives, a consequence of two decades of reforestation in the United States compared to ongoing deforestation pressures in parts of Brazil. 

 

USSEC’s Soy Sustainability Assurance Protocol (SSAP) provides third-party certification of those environmental credentials, and Salinas noted that for Thai exporters — particularly shrimp producers sending products to the European Union — certifications such as SSAP and Best Aquaculture Practices (BAP) are fast becoming non-negotiable requirements rather than optional attributes.

 

 

 

 

Thailand’s Supply Gap and the Tariff Question

Chuchai Kanjanamayoon, USSEC’s Thailand country representative, placed the structural import dependency in sharp relief. Domestic soybean production amounts to only 20,000 to 30,000 tonnes annually, owing to local yields of around 100 kilogrammes per rai — far below the 600 kilogrammes per rai achievable in the US or Brazil, a gap Chuchai attributed to poor soil quality and limited adoption of precision farming technology.

 

“Thailand simply cannot produce enough soybeans to feed its livestock sector. The country must import in large volumes, and we believe the US is the most reliable, sustainable partner to meet that need,” Chuchai said. 

 

Of the soy consumed in Thai animal feed, 94 per cent serves land animals — principally poultry, with Charoen Pokphand identified as the country’s largest importer — and swine, with aquaculture accounting for a further five per cent. 

 

Thailand currently imposes a two per cent tariff on imported soybeans.

 

Chuchai indicated that USSEC is engaged in active negotiations with Thai authorities and expressed confidence that an outcome beneficial to both parties is within reach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pressure from the Farm Gate

The cost environment facing American producers themselves also featured prominently at the conference. 

 

Robb Ewoldt, a sixth-generation Iowa farmer and director and chair of the Audit and Evaluations Committee of the United Soybean Board, spoke of the pressures rippling through the US supply chain — while also highlighting the sustainable farming advances, including no-till methods, reduced fertiliser use and cover crops, that the industry has made over the past 20 years.

 

“Tension in the Gulf states and Iran is pushing up fertiliser costs, diesel prices and logistics expenses. These pressures are real and they feed directly into the cost of producing soybeans in the United States,” Ewoldt said. 

 

 

 

 

On a more encouraging note, rising US soybean crushing for renewable energy and biofuel feedstocks is generating greater volumes of soybean meal available for export — a structural supply tailwind that Salinas said supports USSEC’s growth projections. 

 

Whether those projections can be realised will ultimately depend on how quickly market conditions in Southeast Asia shift in US soy’s favour and how effectively the quality and sustainability narrative can be converted into tangible commercial outcomes.