New power peak forecast this summer

THAILAND’S power peak in 2016 is expected to hit 28,500 megawatts because of high temperatures and severe drought.

The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand’s new peak forecast is above the 28,470MW it estimated late last year. It represents a 4.1-per-cent increase over last year’s peak. 

The new peak forecast, expected to be felt during April and May, is based on the assumption that the average temperature will rise 4 per cent to 38.5 degrees Celsius this year.

“Last year’s peak at 27,345.8MW was recorded at 2.02pm on June 11 when the average temperature was 36.7 degrees,” said deputy Egat governor Suthon Boonprasong, who is in charge of the agency’s transmission system. 

“This year’s peak should be higher than last year because of the heat and the severe drought influenced by the El Nino phenomenon.”

In the past few years, Thailand registered new power peaks every year. Last year, power consumption peaked four times during April and June.

The drought crisis is not restricted to Thailand in the region. Because of drought, farmers in Malaysia’s “rice bowl” states of Kedah and Perlis had to delay their new planting season, which is supposed to be between now and April. 

“I am waiting for the water to be released but it has not been done yet. The problem is, even if the water is released it will flow into the main irrigation canal, which is far from my fields,” said Mad Kamal Ismail, 48, from Kampung Tempayan Pecah, Mukim Ayer Hitam. 

He is concerned that there may not be enough water to flow into the sub-canal to reach his plot. The sub-canal has dried up.

Malaysian fish breeders are also worried, with about 10,000 carp, snapper and grouper fry in Kuala Sangga and Kuala Sepetang, near Taiping, reported dead because of the weather.

The deaths have cost fish farmers hundreds of thousands of ringgit.

Breeder Chuah Thye Guan, 50, said he put thousands of carp fry in cages last week and was shocked to find them all dead.

“I found the seawater had receded to the bottom of the cages,” he said.

Vietnam’s Central Highlands have also been seriously hit by drought. About 180,000 hectares of rice and other crops in four provinces has faced a shortage of water since the middle of this month, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said.

Tran Trung Thanh, deputy director of the Ty Nguyen Centre for Hydrometeorology Forecasting, said the El Nino phenomenon was the most extreme of the last 60 years and it would cause a record drought in the Highlands. “The peak of the drought will occur in early April,” he said.

The region’s rainfall between December and February fell 40 per cent compared with the same period in 2014-15. The water levels of most reservoirs in the region have fallen 15-35 per cent compared with the average of many years.