No serious tsunami threat for Thailand in near future
THAILAND is unlikely to be affected by another deadly tsunami any time soon, an earthquake expert has stated, although the authorities say the country is prepared to respond if one does occur.
In boosting preparedness, relevant parties on various fronts including the Thailand Research Fund (TRF) have emphasised the need to educate people about natural-disaster threats.
Today marks the 12th anniversary of the deadly Indian Ocean tsunami, triggered by a gigantic 9.1 magnitude earthquake on the ocean floor north of Sumatra Island that resulted in 14 countries, including Thailand, being hit by a tsunami.
To mark this year’s anniversary, TRF geology researcher Passakorn Pananont launched an initiative to train teachers in tsunami-prone areas so they better understand tsunamis and will know how to react if one occurs. “Even though scientists still cannot preciously predict an earthquake [happening], which can cause a tsunami, it is very unlikely that the next tsunami will hit our shores soon,” Passakorn said.
“The tsunami threat on the Andaman coast is currently small, because the tectonic fault near Sumatra Island and the Andaman islands caused a major earthquake a few years ago. It takes time to build up the energy to cause a new big quake again. This is called an earthquake recurrence interval.”
Paiboon Nuannin, a lecturer at the Department of Physics at Prince of Songkla University and a prominent earthquake expert, said that based on the earthquake record in the Andaman Sea between 2007 to this year, there were 10 earthquakes big enough to create a tsunami.
He said a tsunami could only be triggered by a specific type of tectonic plate movement and not all big earthquakes can generate a seismic sea wave. “A big tsunami can only be generated by an earthquake larger than eight magnitude, and in the Andaman Sea, the recurrence interval for such a gigantic earthquake was once every 15 years. And the most recent earthquake on this scale already happened in 2012, so it will take around 10 years to gather the energy for the next big earthquake,” he wrote on his Facebook page.
Passakorn emphasised that the most essential part of tsunami prevention was to educate people about this natural threat and let them know how to behave if a tsunami occurs.
“Right now I am running a project with assistance from TRF to give science teachers in southern provinces proper knowledge about quakes and tsunamis, so they can teach their students about these disasters.”
This was an initial basic project to educate 64 teachers. He estimated that at least 1,000 students would benefit from learning how to cope with a disaster and be in a position to save lives if a disaster strikes.
It had been proven that knowledge about tsunamis could save lives, he said, noting how in 2004 a 10-year-old British girl, Tilly Smith, saved hundreds of lives at Mai Khao Beach in Phuket by telling people to evacuate after she correctly read the warning signs in the sea and realised a tsunami was coming.
With regard to tsunami preparation, Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department deputy director Kobchai Boonyaorana said the government was fully prepared for a tsunami because of regular response training and well-maintained warning systems. “Our department prioritises disaster preparation and supports tsunami evacuation drills once or twice every year in the tsunami-prone areas. Our only concern is people may be complacent about a disaster warning and do not evacuate to safe areas in time,” Kobchai said.
He said the department regularly checked and maintained tsunami-detection buoys in the Bay of Bengal and if the buoys were out of order.
